Motor vehicle theft showed a more complex pattern. There were 8 incidents in 2010, which decreased to 5 in 2022, a 37.5% reduction. However, the rate per 1,000 residents only slightly decreased from 0.74 in 2010 to 0.38 in 2022, due to population growth. Interestingly, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated significantly, starting at 0.07% in 2010, peaking at 0.29% in 2019, and then dropping to 0.05% in 2022. This volatility suggests that while overall numbers remained relatively low, the city experienced periodic spikes in this type of crime.

Arson cases in Hampton were rare, with only one reported incident in 2017 and another in 2020. Given the infrequency of these events, it's difficult to establish a meaningful trend or rate per 1,000 residents. The city's contribution to state arson cases was 0.3% in 2017 and 0.5% in 2020, indicating that while arson is uncommon, when it does occur, it represents a noticeable portion of state figures.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density increased from 1,274 per square mile in 2010 to 1,572 in 2022, property crimes decreased, suggesting that higher density did not lead to more crime in this case. There's also a notable correlation between the changing racial composition and crime rates. As the Black population percentage increased from 33% in 2013 to 47% in 2022, and the White population decreased from 55% to 43% in the same period, property crime rates continued to decline, challenging potential stereotypes about race and crime.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall downward trend. Based on the historical data, we can project that by 2029, Hampton might see total property crimes reduce further to around 30-35 incidents per year. This prediction assumes that current socio-economic conditions and law enforcement strategies remain relatively stable.

In summary, Hampton has demonstrated a remarkable improvement in property crime rates despite significant population growth. The substantial decreases in burglary and larceny-theft, coupled with the relatively stable low rates of motor vehicle theft and arson, paint a picture of a community becoming safer over time. These trends, when considered alongside demographic changes, suggest that the city has successfully managed its growth while enhancing public safety. As Hampton continues to evolve, maintaining these positive trends will be crucial for the continued well-being of its residents.