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Grove Hill, Alabama: Property Crime Trends Reveal Significant Short-Term Fluctuations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Grove Hill, located in Alabama, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends. With a population of 3,244 in 2022 and covering an area of 7.59 square miles, this small town has experienced fluctuations in both its population and crime rates over the years. From 2010 to 2012, the total number of property crimes increased from 24 to 42, representing a 75% increase. During this same period, the population remained relatively stable, increasing only slightly from 3,415 to 3,462.
Burglary rates in the city have shown significant variation over the years. In 2010, there were 12 reported burglaries, which decreased to 9 in 2011, but then increased to 16 in 2012. When adjusted for population, this represents a change from 3.51 burglaries per 1,000 people in 2010 to 4.62 per 1,000 in 2012. The percentage of state burglaries attributed to this city fluctuated between 0.02% and 0.05% during this period. This trend suggests that while burglary rates have been volatile, they have generally remained a small fraction of the state's total, indicating that the city's burglary issues are not disproportionate to its size within the state.
Larceny-theft incidents showed an upward trend, increasing from 10 cases in 2010 to 24 in 2012. This represents a 140% increase over two years. When adjusted for population, the rate increased from 2.93 incidents per 1,000 people in 2010 to 6.93 per 1,000 in 2012. The city's contribution to the state's larceny-theft cases rose from 0.01% to 0.03% during this period. This significant increase in larceny-theft rates, both in absolute numbers and as a percentage of state totals, suggests a growing concern that may require targeted interventions.
Motor vehicle theft in the city remained relatively low but showed some fluctuation. There were 2 cases reported in 2010, none in 2011, and 2 cases again in 2012. The rate per 1,000 people was 0.59 in 2010 and 0.58 in 2012. The city's contribution to the state's motor vehicle theft cases remained at 0.03% in both 2010 and 2012, with a drop to 0% in 2011. This suggests that motor vehicle theft is not a major concern for the city, with rates remaining consistently low relative to the population and state totals.
Arson data for the city is limited, with only one reported case in 2011, representing 0.18% of the state's total arson cases that year. The lack of data for other years makes it difficult to establish a trend or draw significant conclusions about arson rates in the city.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The city experienced a significant increase in median income from $27,169 in 2013 to $42,532 in 2022, representing a 56.5% increase. Concurrently, the percentage of owner-occupied housing units rose from 64% in 2013 to 81% in 2022. These positive economic indicators coincide with the period following the spike in property crimes observed from 2010 to 2012. This suggests that improved economic conditions and increased home ownership may have contributed to a potential reduction in property crime rates, although more recent crime data would be needed to confirm this hypothesis.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that by 2029 (seven years from 2022, representing five years from now), property crime rates in Grove Hill may continue to stabilize or potentially decrease if the positive economic trends and increased home ownership rates persist. However, this prediction should be interpreted cautiously due to the limited recent crime data available.
In summary, Grove Hill has experienced fluctuations in property crime rates, with a notable increase from 2010 to 2012, particularly in larceny-theft incidents. The subsequent years saw significant improvements in economic indicators and home ownership rates, which may have positively impacted crime rates. While the city's contribution to state crime totals remains relatively small, ongoing monitoring and community-based crime prevention strategies could help maintain or improve public safety in this small Alabama town.
