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Grays Ferry: Rising Home Values and Ownership Rates in a Changing Philadelphia Neighborhood
CATEGORY
Property Value
DATA
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
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Property Value
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
Grays Ferry, a neighborhood in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, has experienced significant changes in its housing market over the past decade. This analysis explores the trends in homeownership rates, average home prices, and average rent prices in the area. From 2013 to 2022, Grays Ferry saw a notable increase in homeownership rates. The percentage of owner-occupied homes rose from 39% in 2013 to 45% in 2022, peaking at 48% in 2020 and 2021. This upward trend in homeownership coincided with a substantial rise in average home prices. In 2013, the average home price in Grays Ferry was $60,758. By 2022, it had more than tripled to $191,886, representing a 216% increase over nine years.
The relationship between federal interest rates and homeownership rates in Grays Ferry shows an interesting pattern. Despite historically low interest rates from 2013 to 2016 (ranging from 0.09% to 0.4%), homeownership rates increased only modestly from 39% to 42%. However, as interest rates began to rise more significantly from 2017 to 2019 (1% to 2.16%), homeownership rates continued to climb, reaching 47% by 2019. This suggests that local market factors may have played a more significant role in driving homeownership than national interest rates during this period.
Renter percentages in Grays Ferry decreased from 61% in 2013 to 55% in 2022, mirroring the rise in homeownership. Despite this decline, average rent prices increased steadily. In 2013, the average rent was $756 per month. By 2022, it had risen to $924, a 22% increase. This upward trend in rent prices occurred even as the neighborhood's population remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 15,335 and 16,358 residents during this period.
Looking at more recent data, the average home price in Grays Ferry decreased slightly from $191,886 in 2022 to $184,263 in 2023, before showing a small uptick to $185,508 in 2024. This slight cooling in the housing market coincides with a significant increase in federal interest rates, which rose from 1.68% in 2022 to 5.02% in 2023 and further to 5.33% in 2024. These higher interest rates may be contributing to the stabilization of home prices in the neighborhood.
Applying predictive models to forecast 5-year trends, we anticipate that average home prices in Grays Ferry will continue to show modest growth, potentially reaching around $200,000 by 2029. Average rent prices are expected to follow a similar trajectory, potentially increasing to approximately $1,100 per month over the same period. However, these projections are subject to various economic factors and local market conditions.
In summary, Grays Ferry has seen a significant shift towards homeownership over the past decade, accompanied by a substantial increase in average home prices. Despite a decrease in the percentage of renters, average rent prices have also risen steadily. The recent stabilization of home prices in 2023 and 2024, coinciding with higher interest rates, suggests a potential cooling of the rapid price growth seen in previous years. As the neighborhood continues to evolve, balancing affordability with the increasing desirability of homeownership will likely be a key challenge for residents and policymakers alike.
