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Granite Shoals, Texas: Property Crime Trends Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Granite Shoals, Texas: A Decade of Declining Property Crime Granite Shoals, located in Texas, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2019, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, starting at 50 in 2010, peaking at 88 in 2011, and ultimately decreasing to 35 in 2019, representing a 30% overall decrease. During this same period, the city's population grew from 6,784 in 2010 to 7,231 in 2019, an increase of approximately 6.6%.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant downward trend over time. In 2010, there were 23 burglaries, which sharply increased to 41 in 2011. However, by 2019, this number had drastically reduced to just 5 burglaries. When considering population trends, the burglary rate per 1,000 people decreased from 3.39 in 2010 to 0.69 in 2019, a remarkable 79.6% reduction. The city's contribution to state burglary statistics also declined, from 0.01% in 2010 to 0.01% in 2019, indicating that the local trend aligns with or outperforms state-level improvements in burglary prevention.
Larceny-theft incidents have shown more volatility but an overall decreasing trend. From 24 cases in 2010, it peaked at 40 in 2016 before declining to 23 in 2019. The rate per 1,000 people fluctuated accordingly, from 3.54 in 2010 to 3.18 in 2019, a 10.2% decrease. The city's share of state larceny-theft remained relatively stable at 0.01% throughout most of the period, suggesting that local trends generally mirrored state-level patterns.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has shown an inconsistent pattern. Starting with 3 cases in 2010, it peaked at 9 in 2011 and 2013, then dropped to 0 in 2015, before rising again to 7 in 2019. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.44 in 2010 to 0.97 in 2019, a 120% increase. However, the city's contribution to state motor vehicle theft statistics remained low, fluctuating between 0.01% and 0.02%, indicating that despite local increases, the city's impact on state figures remained minimal.
Arson cases in the city have been rare, with only sporadic occurrences. There was 1 case in 2010, 2 in 2013, and 1 in 2014, with no reported cases in other years. The rate per 1,000 people for these years was 0.15, 0.29, and 0.14 respectively. The city's contribution to state arson statistics was notably high in 2013 at 0.06%, but this is likely due to the low overall numbers magnifying the impact of individual cases.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As the median income rose from $44,915 in 2013 to $63,013 in 2022, overall property crime rates declined. Additionally, the increase in home ownership rates from 75% in 2013 to 84% in 2022 coincides with the decrease in property crimes, suggesting a possible correlation between community stability and reduced crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, we can forecast that by 2029, property crime rates in Granite Shoals are likely to continue their downward trajectory. Burglaries may decrease to near-zero levels, while larceny-theft could stabilize around 15-20 cases annually. Motor vehicle theft might fluctuate but remain under 5 cases per year. Arson is expected to remain a rare occurrence.
In summary, Granite Shoals has experienced a notable overall decrease in property crimes over the past decade, particularly in burglaries and larceny-theft. This positive trend, coupled with population growth, rising median incomes, and increasing home ownership rates, suggests a community that is becoming safer and more economically stable. While challenges remain, particularly with motor vehicle theft, the overall trajectory indicates improving safety and security for the residents of Granite Shoals.
