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Girard Estates: Rising Home Values and Shifting Ownership Trends in a Philadelphia Neighborhood
CATEGORY
Property Value
DATA
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
Loading Content...
Property Value
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
Girard Estates, located in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, is a vibrant neighborhood known for its distinctive row homes and strong community spirit. Over the past decade, this area has experienced notable shifts in homeownership rates and housing market dynamics. In 2013, the neighborhood boasted an 80% homeownership rate, which has since decreased to 71% by 2022. Concurrently, average home prices have shown a steady upward trend, while average rent prices have fluctuated with an overall increase.
The relationship between homeownership rates and average home prices in Girard Estates reveals an interesting inverse correlation. As average home prices rose from $182,915 in 2010 to $279,862 in 2022, a 53% increase, the percentage of owner-occupied homes declined from 80% in 2013 to 71% in 2022. This trend suggests that rising home values may have made homeownership less attainable for some residents. For instance, when average home prices reached $223,943 in 2017, the homeownership rate had already dropped to 79%, indicating a gradual shift in the market.
Federal interest rates have played a significant role in shaping homeownership trends in Girard Estates. The period from 2010 to 2015 saw historically low interest rates, ranging from 0.09% to 0.18%, which coincided with relatively stable homeownership rates around 80-81%. However, as interest rates began to rise from 2016 onwards, reaching 1.83% by 2018, homeownership rates started to decline more rapidly, dropping to 76% that year. This trend illustrates how higher interest rates can make mortgages less affordable, potentially discouraging homeownership.
The rental market in Girard Estates has shown a corresponding increase as homeownership rates declined. The percentage of renter-occupied homes rose from 20% in 2013 to 29% in 2022. This shift has been accompanied by a general upward trend in average rent prices, which increased from $1,058 in 2013 to $1,367 in 2022, a 29% rise. The most significant jump in average rent occurred between 2019 and 2021, rising from $1,045 to $1,421, a 36% increase in just two years. This surge in rent prices coincided with a population increase from 12,178 in 2019 to 12,164 in 2021, suggesting growing demand for rental properties in the area.
As of 2024, the average home price in Girard Estates stands at $281,764, showing a slight increase from the 2023 value of $276,895. This uptick comes despite the current federal interest rate of 5.33% in 2024, which is significantly higher than the 2022 rate of 1.68%. The resilience of home prices in the face of higher interest rates suggests a continued strong demand for housing in the neighborhood.
Looking ahead, predictive models forecast a continued but moderate increase in both average home prices and rent prices over the next five years. Home prices are expected to maintain their upward trajectory, potentially reaching around $300,000 by 2029. Average rent prices are projected to follow a similar pattern, possibly exceeding $1,500 per month within the same timeframe. These projections are based on historical trends and current market conditions.
In summary, Girard Estates has witnessed a gradual shift from a predominantly owner-occupied neighborhood to one with an increasing rental presence. The inverse relationship between rising home prices and declining homeownership rates, influenced by fluctuating interest rates, has been a key feature of this transformation. Despite these changes, the neighborhood's housing market remains robust, with both home values and rent prices showing resilience and growth potential in the coming years.
