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Georgetown, Illinois: Property Crime Trends Amid Population Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Georgetown, Illinois, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2020, the city experienced a significant decline in total property crimes, dropping from 72 incidents in 2010 to 35 in 2020, representing a 51.4% decrease. This reduction occurred against a backdrop of population decline, with the city's population decreasing by 9.2% from 4,353 in 2010 to 3,951.5 in 2020.
Burglary trends in the city show notable fluctuations over the years. In 2010, there were 28 burglaries, which decreased to 16 in 2011, but then spiked to 38 in 2016. By 2019, burglaries had dropped significantly to 6 incidents. However, 2020 saw a sharp increase to 35 burglaries. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents increased from 6.43 in 2010 to 8.86 in 2020. The city's share of state burglaries also rose dramatically, from 0.05% in 2010 to 0.17% in 2020. This increase, despite the overall population decrease, suggests a concerning trend in burglary incidents relative to the city's size.
Larceny-theft showed a general downward trend. From 42 incidents in 2010, it peaked at 54 in 2017 before dropping sharply to 14 in 2019. Unfortunately, data for 2020 is not available. The rate per 1,000 residents fluctuated, reaching a high of 13.1 in 2017 before falling to 3.52 in 2019. The city's share of state larceny-theft remained relatively stable, hovering around 0.02-0.03% for most years, indicating that the local trend generally aligned with state-wide patterns.
Motor vehicle theft in Georgetown remained relatively low throughout the decade. From 2 incidents in 2010, it peaked at 6 in 2018 before dropping to 3 in 2019, with no reported cases in 2020. The rate per 1,000 residents peaked at 1.47 in 2018. Interestingly, despite low numbers, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.01% in 2010 to 0.04% in 2018, suggesting that while incidents remained low, they didn't decrease as rapidly as in other parts of the state.
Arson incidents were sporadic, with most years reporting zero cases. The highest number of arsons reported was 2 in both 2012 and 2016. Given the low numbers, the rate per 1,000 residents never exceeded 0.48. The city's share of state arsons fluctuated significantly, reaching a high of 0.19% in 2012, indicating that even a small number of incidents can represent a notable portion of state totals for smaller cities.
A strong correlation emerges between property crime trends and population density. As the population density decreased from 2,693 per square mile in 2010 to 2,445 in 2020, overall property crime rates also showed a general decline. This suggests that the reduction in population density may have contributed to fewer opportunities for property crimes.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next seven years (until 2029), we anticipate a potential stabilization or slight increase in burglary rates, assuming no significant changes in local conditions or law enforcement strategies. Larceny-theft is projected to continue its downward trend, while motor vehicle theft and arson are expected to remain at low levels with possible occasional spikes.
In summary, Georgetown has experienced a complex evolution in property crime patterns over the past decade. The most significant findings include the sharp decline in overall property crimes despite an increase in burglaries in recent years, and the city's increasing share of state burglaries. These trends, coupled with the ongoing population decline, suggest a need for targeted strategies to address burglary while maintaining the positive trends in other property crime categories.
