Robbery trends in the city show a significant decline. In 2011, there were 171 robberies, which decreased to 99 in 2022, a 42.1% reduction. Adjusting for population, the robbery rate per 1,000 residents fell from 2.37 in 2011 to 1.20 in 2022, a 49.4% decrease. The city's share of state robberies fluctuated but ultimately decreased from 2.37% in 2011 to 1.94% in 2022, suggesting that Gastonia has made substantial progress in reducing robbery incidents both locally and in relation to state figures.

Aggravated assault cases in Gastonia have shown an upward trend. In 2011, there were 254 aggravated assaults, which increased to 511 in 2022, a substantial 101.2% rise. When adjusted for population growth, the aggravated assault rate per 1,000 residents increased from 3.52 in 2011 to 6.18 in 2022, a 75.6% increase. The city's percentage of state aggravated assaults rose from 1.93% in 2011 to 2.13% in 2022, indicating that Gastonia's aggravated assault problem has worsened both locally and in relation to state figures.

Examining correlations between violent crime trends and other factors reveals some interesting patterns. The rise in violent crime, particularly aggravated assaults, appears to have a strong positive correlation with the increase in population density, which grew from 1,386 people per square mile in 2011 to 1,590 in 2022. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between the increase in median rent, which rose from $735 in 2013 to $1,058 in 2022, and the overall increase in violent crime during this period.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests that if current trends continue, Gastonia may see a further increase in violent crimes, particularly in aggravated assaults. The models predict that by 2029, the city could potentially experience around 750-800 violent crimes annually, with aggravated assaults possibly accounting for over 600 of these incidents. However, robbery rates are expected to continue their downward trend, potentially dropping to around 80-90 cases per year by 2029.

In summary, Gastonia has experienced a complex evolution in its violent crime landscape over the past decade. While the city has made significant progress in reducing robbery and rape incidents, it faces growing challenges with aggravated assaults and a fluctuating but concerning murder rate. The correlation between rising population density, increasing median rent, and violent crime rates suggests that urban development and affordability issues may be contributing factors to the city's crime trends. As Gastonia continues to grow, addressing these underlying factors will be crucial in managing and potentially reversing the upward trend in violent crimes, particularly aggravated assaults.