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Garden City, Kansas: Property Crime Trends in a Growing Community
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Garden City, Kansas, a vibrant community in the southwestern part of the state, has experienced notable shifts in its property crime landscape over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the city saw a significant decrease in total property crimes, dropping from 1,019 in 2010 to 711 in 2022, representing a 30.2% reduction. This decline occurred alongside a population growth of 4.6%, from 32,045 in 2010 to 33,532 in 2022, suggesting an overall improvement in public safety relative to the city's expansion.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a substantial decline over the years. In 2010, there were 144 burglaries, which decreased to 96 in 2022, marking a 33.3% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 4.49 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 2.86 per 1,000 in 2022. Interestingly, while the number of burglaries decreased, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.97% in 2010 to 1.56% in 2022, indicating that the city's improvement outpaced the state average.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime, also demonstrated a downward trend. The number of incidents decreased from 840 in 2010 to 530 in 2022, a 36.9% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people fell from 26.21 in 2010 to 15.81 in 2022. Despite this decrease, the city's proportion of state larceny-theft cases remained relatively stable, slightly decreasing from 1.58% in 2010 to 1.52% in 2022.
Motor vehicle theft showed a more complex pattern. While the number of thefts increased from 35 in 2010 to 85 in 2022, a 142.9% rise, the rate per 1,000 people also increased from 1.09 to 2.53. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts grew from 0.68% to 1.64% during this period, indicating a faster increase compared to the state average.
Arson cases in the city fluctuated but showed an overall increase. From 6 cases in 2010, the number rose to 8 in 2022, a 33.3% increase. The rate per 1,000 people increased slightly from 0.19 to 0.24. The city's proportion of state arson cases more than doubled, from 1.34% in 2010 to 2.8% in 2022, suggesting a more significant increase compared to the state trend.
Examining correlations between crime trends and demographic factors reveals interesting patterns. The decline in overall property crime rates coincided with a steady increase in median income, rising from $49,698 in 2013 to $60,096 in 2022. This suggests a potential link between improved economic conditions and reduced property crime. Additionally, the slight increase in home ownership rates, from 62% in 2013 to 63% in 2022, may have contributed to community stability and lower crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued gradual decline in overall property crime rates. Burglary and larceny-theft are expected to maintain their downward trajectories, while motor vehicle theft may stabilize after its recent increase. Arson cases are projected to remain relatively low but fluctuating.
In summary, Garden City has made significant strides in reducing property crime over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. The city's economic growth and community stability appear to have played positive roles in this trend. However, the increases in motor vehicle theft and arson rates highlight areas that may require focused attention. As the city continues to grow and evolve, maintaining these positive trends while addressing emerging challenges will be crucial for ensuring the safety and well-being of its residents.
