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Garden City, Idaho: Steady Homeownership Amidst Rising Property Values
CATEGORY
Property Value
DATA
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
Garden City, Idaho, a vibrant community in Ada County, is known for its proximity to the Boise River and unique blend of urban and rural characteristics. Over the past decade, the city has experienced significant changes in homeownership rates, average home prices, and average rent prices, reflecting broader economic trends and local market dynamics.
The homeownership rate in Garden City has remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 58% and 61% from 2013 to 2022. Meanwhile, average home prices have shown a dramatic upward trend. In 2010, the average home price was $176,652, which steadily increased to $523,178 by 2022, representing a remarkable 196% increase over 12 years. This substantial growth in home values, particularly the sharp rise from $349,815 in 2020 to $478,298 in 2021, a 37% jump in a single year, has not significantly impacted homeownership rates, suggesting a resilient local housing market.
Federal interest rates have played a role in shaping homeownership trends in Garden City. The period from 2010 to 2016 saw historically low interest rates, ranging from 0.09% to 0.4%, which generally supports homeownership. However, Garden City's homeownership rate remained relatively steady during this time, indicating that other local factors may have been influencing the market. As interest rates began to rise more significantly from 2017 (1%) to 2019 (2.16%), the homeownership rate in Garden City showed a slight decline from 60% in 2017 to 58% in 2019, aligning with the expected trend of higher interest rates potentially discouraging home purchases.
Renter percentages in Garden City have mirrored homeownership rates, ranging from 39% to 42% between 2013 and 2022. Average rent prices have shown a consistent upward trend, increasing from $897 in 2013 to $1,095 in 2022, a 22% rise over nine years. This increase in rent prices has been accompanied by population growth, from 16,265 in 2013 to 18,752 in 2022, suggesting increased demand for rental properties. Notably, the sharpest increase in average rent occurred between 2018 and 2020, rising from $1,019 to $1,199, a 17.7% increase in just two years.
In 2023 and 2024, Garden City's housing market experienced a slight correction after years of rapid growth. The average home price decreased from $523,178 in 2022 to $485,721 in 2023, a 7.2% decline. However, prices began to recover in 2024, reaching $498,305. This aligns with the significant increase in federal interest rates, which rose to 5.02% in 2023 and 5.33% in 2024, potentially cooling the housing market temporarily.
Looking ahead, based on historical trends and current market conditions, we can project that average home prices in Garden City may continue to appreciate, albeit at a more moderate pace. A conservative estimate suggests a potential 3-5% annual increase over the next five years, which could bring the average home price to around $575,000-$600,000 by 2029. Average rent prices are likely to follow a similar trajectory, potentially reaching $1,300-$1,400 per month by 2029, assuming a 3-4% annual increase.
In summary, Garden City has demonstrated a robust and dynamic housing market over the past decade. Despite significant increases in both home values and rent prices, homeownership rates have remained relatively stable. The recent market correction and rising interest rates suggest a potential shift towards a more balanced market in the coming years. As the city continues to grow and evolve, its housing market is likely to remain an attractive option for both homeowners and renters in the Boise metropolitan area.
