Robbery trends in Freeport have been more stable but remain concerning. In 2010, there were 15 robberies (0.55 per 1,000 residents), making up 0.08% of the state's total. By 2022, this had decreased slightly to 13 robberies (0.51 per 1,000 residents), but the city's share of state robberies increased to 0.12%. This suggests that while the absolute number of robberies has decreased slightly, the city's robbery problem has worsened relative to the state average.

Aggravated assault has seen the most dramatic increase among violent crimes in Freeport. In 2010, there were 29 cases (1.07 per 1,000 residents), representing 0.11% of the state's total. By 2022, this had surged to 41 cases (1.62 per 1,000 residents), accounting for 0.32% of the state's total. This represents a 41.4% increase in the number of aggravated assaults and a 51.4% increase in the rate per 1,000 residents. The city's share of state aggravated assaults has nearly tripled, indicating a significant worsening of this crime category relative to the rest of Illinois.

An examination of correlations reveals a strong inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates in Freeport. As the population density decreased from 2,291 per square mile in 2010 to 2,134 in 2022, violent crime rates increased. This suggests that the declining population has not led to a proportional decrease in crime, potentially indicating a concentration of criminal activity among a smaller population.

Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's forecasted that by 2029, Freeport may see a potential increase in the total number of violent crimes to around 90-100 incidents annually. Murder rates may potentially stabilize around 2-3 cases per year, while rape incidents could potentially reach 25-30 cases annually. Robbery cases are expected to potentially remain stable or slightly decrease to 10-12 per year, and aggravated assaults may potentially increase to 50-55 cases annually.

In summary, Freeport has faced a challenging decade in terms of violent crime. The most concerning trends are the significant increases in rape and aggravated assault, both in absolute numbers and as a proportion of state totals. These trends, coupled with a declining population, suggest a concentration of criminal activity that may require targeted interventions and community-based strategies to address effectively. The forecasted trends indicate a potential continuation of these challenges, emphasizing the need for proactive measures to improve public safety in Freeport.