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Frankston, Texas: Property Crime Trends in a Small Town with Declining Population
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Frankston, Texas, is a small community with a population of 3,396 as of 2022. Over the past decade, the city has experienced fluctuations in its property crime rates, with notable changes in various categories. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 64.15%, from 53 to 19 incidents. During this same period, the population declined slightly by 2.55%, from 3,485 to 3,396 residents.
Burglary trends in the city show a significant decline over time. In 2010, there were 16 reported burglaries, which dropped to just 2 in 2022, representing an 87.5% decrease. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 people fell from 4.59 in 2010 to 0.59 in 2022. The city's contribution to state burglary statistics also decreased, from 0.01% in 2010 to 0% in 2022. This substantial reduction in burglaries suggests improved home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies in the area.
Larceny theft incidents also saw a considerable decrease. In 2010, there were 37 reported cases, which reduced to 16 in 2022, marking a 56.76% decline. The larceny theft rate per 1,000 people decreased from 10.62 in 2010 to 4.71 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny theft statistics dropped from 0.01% to 0% during this period. This downward trend in larceny theft could indicate enhanced community awareness and crime prevention efforts.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has remained relatively low, with some fluctuations. In 2010, there were no reported cases, but by 2022, there was 1 incident. The motor vehicle theft rate per 1,000 people increased slightly from 0 in 2010 to 0.29 in 2022. The city's contribution to state motor vehicle theft statistics remained at 0% throughout most of the period, with a brief spike to 0.01% in 2016. The low numbers suggest that motor vehicle theft is not a significant concern for the community.
Arson incidents have been consistently low or non-existent in the city. Throughout the entire period from 2010 to 2022, there were no reported cases of arson. This absence of arson cases indicates a positive aspect of public safety in the community.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density decreased from 1,404 per square mile in 2010 to 1,369 in 2022, there was a corresponding decrease in overall property crime rates. This suggests that lower population density may contribute to reduced property crime incidents. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing increased from 77% in 2013 to 82% in 2022, which coincides with the overall decrease in property crimes. This correlation could indicate that higher rates of homeownership contribute to a more stable and secure community.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued gradual decrease in overall property crime rates. Based on the current trends, it is projected that the total number of property crimes could potentially drop to around 12-15 incidents per year by 2029. Burglaries are expected to remain low, possibly averaging 1-2 cases annually. Larceny theft is predicted to continue its downward trend, potentially reaching 10-12 incidents per year. Motor vehicle theft is likely to remain at very low levels, with 0-1 incidents annually.
In summary, Frankston has demonstrated a significant improvement in its property crime statistics over the past decade. The substantial decreases in burglary and larceny theft, coupled with consistently low rates of motor vehicle theft and absence of arson, paint a picture of a community that has become safer over time. The correlations with increasing homeownership and decreasing population density suggest that these factors may play a role in the improved crime statistics. As the city moves forward, maintaining these positive trends will be crucial for the continued safety and well-being of its residents.
