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Fluctuating Violent Crime Trends in Rogers City, Michigan: A Decade of Low but Variable Rates
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Rogers City, Michigan, a small community situated on the shores of Lake Huron, has experienced fluctuating violent crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes ranged from a low of 0 in 2016 to a high of 9 in 2020. Despite these variations, the overall trend shows a slight increase, with violent crimes rising from 3 in 2010 to 4 in 2022, representing a 33.33% increase. During this same period, the population decreased from 4,616 in 2010 to 4,369 in 2022, a 5.35% decline.
The murder rate in the city has remained consistently at zero throughout the observed period from 2010 to 2022. This stability in the absence of murders is notable, especially considering the fluctuations in other violent crime categories. The consistent zero murder rate translates to 0 murders per 1,000 people and 0% of the state's murders, indicating a remarkably safe environment in this aspect of violent crime.
Rape incidents have shown considerable variability over the years. The number of reported rapes ranged from 0 to 7, with the highest number occurring in 2020. The rape rate per 1,000 people fluctuated accordingly, reaching a peak of 1.61 per 1,000 in 2020, compared to 0.65 per 1,000 in 2010. The percentage of state rapes attributed to the city varied, with the highest being 0.24% in 2020 and the lowest at 0% in several years. This volatility suggests that while rape is not a persistent problem, there have been sporadic increases that warrant attention.
Robbery has been an infrequent occurrence in the city. Only one robbery was reported throughout the entire period, which happened in 2017. This single incident resulted in a rate of 0.23 robberies per 1,000 people for that year and represented 0.02% of the state's robberies. The rarity of robberies indicates that this form of violent crime is not a significant concern for the community.
Aggravated assault cases have fluctuated over the years, ranging from 0 to 3 incidents annually. The rate per 1,000 people varied accordingly, with the highest being 0.68 per 1,000 in 2014. The city's contribution to the state's aggravated assault cases remained low, never exceeding 0.01% of the state total. This suggests that while aggravated assaults do occur, they are relatively infrequent and do not represent a major crime issue for the city.
There appears to be a correlation between population density and violent crime rates in the city. As the population density decreased from 1,017 people per square mile in 2010 to 963 in 2022, there was a slight overall increase in violent crimes. This suggests that factors other than population density may be influencing crime rates in the community.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential continuation of the slight upward trend in overall violent crimes. However, given the small numbers involved and the historical fluctuations, these predictions should be interpreted cautiously. The forecast indicates that the city may experience between 3 to 5 violent crimes annually by 2029, assuming current trends persist.
In summary, Rogers City has maintained a relatively low level of violent crime over the past decade, with notable absences in certain categories such as murder. The most significant concerns appear to be related to sporadic increases in rape and aggravated assault incidents. While the overall trend shows a slight increase in violent crimes, the absolute numbers remain low for a city of its size. The community's ability to maintain zero murders and nearly zero robberies over an extended period is particularly noteworthy. As the city moves forward, continued vigilance and community-based crime prevention strategies will be crucial in maintaining and potentially improving upon these generally favorable violent crime statistics.
