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First Ward, Buffalo: Soaring Home Values and Shifting Ownership Trends
CATEGORY
Property Value
DATA
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
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Property Value
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
First Ward, a historic neighborhood in Buffalo, New York, has experienced significant changes in its housing market over the past decade. Known for its proximity to downtown and rich industrial heritage, the area has seen a notable shift in homeownership rates and housing prices, reflecting broader economic trends and local developments. From 2013 to 2022, First Ward witnessed a substantial decline in homeownership rates. In 2013, 41% of residents owned their homes, but by 2022, this figure had dropped to 30%. Concurrently, average home prices in the neighborhood saw a dramatic increase. In 2015, the average home price was $30,379, but by 2022, it had risen to $93,858, representing a 209% increase over seven years. This inverse relationship between homeownership rates and home prices suggests that rising property values may be pricing out potential buyers, particularly long-time residents or those with moderate incomes. The federal interest rate trends provide additional context for these housing market dynamics. From 2015 to 2021, interest rates remained relatively low, ranging from 0.13% to 1.83%. Despite these favorable borrowing conditions, which typically encourage homeownership, First Ward saw a decline in owner-occupancy. This suggests that other factors, such as rapidly appreciating home values or changes in local economic conditions, may have outweighed the potential benefits of low interest rates for prospective homebuyers in this neighborhood.
As homeownership declined, the percentage of renters in First Ward increased from 59% in 2013 to 70% in 2022. This shift towards a renter-majority community has been accompanied by fluctuations in average rent prices. In 2013, the average rent was $677, which decreased to $526 in 2018 before rising again to $670 in 2022. The most significant spike occurred in 2021, when average rent jumped to $928, possibly reflecting pandemic-related market disruptions. It's worth noting that despite the overall increase in the renter population, the neighborhood's total population decreased from 1,778 in 2013 to 1,470 in 2022, which may have influenced rental market dynamics.
Looking at the most recent data, average home prices in First Ward reached $87,863 in 2023 and further increased to $93,881 in 2024. This represents a 7% rise in just one year, indicating continued strong growth in the local housing market. Concurrently, federal interest rates have risen significantly, reaching 5.02% in 2023 and 5.33% in 2024. These higher interest rates may impact future homebuying activity and could potentially slow the rate of price appreciation.
Projecting forward, based on the trends observed from 2015 to 2024, we can anticipate continued growth in both home prices and rental rates in First Ward over the next five years. Average home prices could potentially reach or exceed $120,000 by 2029, assuming a moderate annual growth rate of 5-7%. Rental prices may also continue to climb, potentially reaching an average of $800-$850 per month by 2029, factoring in historical volatility and recent upward trends.
In summary, First Ward has undergone significant changes in its housing market over the past decade. The neighborhood has transitioned from a more balanced mix of owners and renters to a predominantly renter-occupied area, while simultaneously experiencing substantial appreciation in home values. These trends, coupled with recent increases in interest rates, suggest a dynamic and evolving housing landscape that will likely continue to shape the character and demographics of First Ward in the coming years.
