Loading Content...
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Farmington, located in Missouri, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in total property crimes, with a notable increase from 547 incidents in 2010 to 739 in 2022, representing a 35.1% rise. During this same period, the population grew from 19,705 to 21,531, a 9.3% increase, indicating that crime rates outpaced population growth.
Burglary trends in the city show a contrasting pattern. In 2010, there were 38 burglaries, which peaked at 74 in 2014 before declining to 18 in 2022. This represents a 52.6% decrease over the 12-year period. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 people decreased from 1.93 in 2010 to 0.84 in 2022. Interestingly, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.12% in 2010 to 0.14% in 2022, suggesting that while local burglaries decreased, they did not fall as rapidly as the state average.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, saw an increase from 498 incidents in 2010 to 673 in 2022, a 35.1% rise. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 25.27 to 31.26 over this period. More significantly, the city's contribution to state larceny-theft crimes rose dramatically from 0.44% in 2010 to 0.86% in 2022, indicating that this type of crime grew faster in the city than in the state overall.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed a substantial increase, from 11 incidents in 2010 to 48 in 2022, a 336.4% rise. The rate per 1,000 people jumped from 0.56 to 2.23. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.08% to 0.20%, suggesting that this crime grew more rapidly in the city compared to state averages.
Arson cases in the city were rare but showed an increase over time. From no reported cases in 2010, the number rose to 2 incidents in 2022. While the absolute numbers are small, the rate per 1,000 people went from 0 to 0.09. The city's contribution to state arson cases increased from 0% to 0.33%, indicating a disproportionate growth compared to state trends.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong relationship between the increase in property crimes and population density, which rose from 2,075 per square mile in 2010 to 2,267 in 2022. Additionally, the median income increase from $47,017 in 2013 to $51,560 in 2022 coincides with the rise in larceny-theft, suggesting a potential link between economic factors and this type of crime.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next seven years (until 2029), we anticipate a continued increase in overall property crimes, with larceny-theft and motor vehicle theft likely to see the most significant growth. Burglaries are expected to continue their downward trend, while arson cases may stabilize at current levels.
In summary, Farmington has experienced a complex evolution of property crime patterns over the past decade. The significant increases in larceny-theft and motor vehicle theft, coupled with the city's growing share of state crime figures, suggest a need for targeted interventions. These trends, when considered alongside population growth and economic changes, underscore the importance of adaptive law enforcement strategies and community-based crime prevention initiatives to address the changing landscape of property crime in the city.