Loading Content...
Emeryville's Property Crime Surge: A Decade of Rising Incidents in a Small Bay Area City
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Emeryville, California, a small city of just 1.27 square miles, has experienced significant changes in property crime rates and population growth over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes increased by 96.5%, from 981 to 1,928 incidents. During the same period, the population grew by 35.8%, from 9,458 to 12,840 residents. This analysis will delve into the specific trends of various property crime categories and their relationship to the city's changing demographics.
Burglary rates in the city have fluctuated over the years, with a notable overall increase of 32.7% from 2010 to 2022. The number of burglaries per 1,000 residents increased from 11.9 in 2010 to 11.7 in 2022, indicating a slight decrease in the rate relative to population growth. Interestingly, the city's share of state burglaries has grown significantly, from 0.06% in 2010 to 0.13% in 2022. This suggests that while the absolute number of burglaries has increased, the city's burglary rate has somewhat stabilized relative to its population growth.
Larceny theft has seen a substantial increase of 92.4% from 2010 to 2022, rising from 777 to 1,495 incidents. The rate per 1,000 residents grew from 82.2 in 2010 to 116.4 in 2022, indicating a significant increase relative to population growth. The city's share of state larceny thefts doubled from 0.15% to 0.30% during this period. This trend suggests that larceny theft has become a more prevalent issue in the city, outpacing both population growth and statewide trends.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has shown a dramatic increase of 211% from 2010 to 2022, rising from 91 to 283 incidents. The rate per 1,000 residents grew from 9.6 in 2010 to 22.0 in 2022, indicating a significant increase relative to population growth. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts more than doubled from 0.07% to 0.18% during this period. This trend suggests that motor vehicle theft has become a major concern in the city, growing at a rate far exceeding population growth and statewide averages.
Arson incidents, while relatively low in number, have shown a significant increase from 0 reported cases in 2010 to 5 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0 to 0.39 during this period. The city's share of state arson cases grew from 0% to 0.08%, indicating that arson has become a more notable issue in recent years, albeit still at a relatively low level compared to other property crimes.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a strong positive correlation between the increase in property crimes and the growth in population density, which rose from 7,428 per square mile in 2010 to 10,084 in 2022. Additionally, the rise in median income from $82,821 in 2013 to $103,022 in 2022 coincides with the increase in property crimes, particularly larceny theft, suggesting a potential relationship between increased affluence and certain types of property crime.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued increase in overall property crime rates. Based on current trends, we can expect total property crimes to potentially reach around 2,500 incidents by 2029, with larceny theft and motor vehicle theft likely to show the most significant increases.
In conclusion, Emeryville has experienced a substantial increase in property crimes over the past decade, outpacing its population growth. The most notable increases have been in larceny theft and motor vehicle theft, while burglary rates have remained relatively stable in relation to population growth. The city's changing demographics, including increased population density and rising median income, appear to correlate with these crime trends. As Emeryville continues to evolve, addressing these property crime challenges will likely be a key focus for local law enforcement and community leaders.
