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Ellsworth, Kansas: Stable Violent Crime Trends Amidst Population Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Ellsworth, located in Kansas, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in its total violent crime incidents, ranging from a high of 12 in 2017 to a low of 1 in 2021. Over this period, the population slightly decreased from 3,551 in 2010 to 3,427 in 2022, representing a 3.5% decline.
Examining murder trends, Ellsworth has maintained a consistent record of zero murders from 2010 to 2022. This remarkable statistic translates to a murder rate of 0 per 1,000 people throughout the entire period, and consistently represents 0% of the state's murders. This absence of homicides speaks positively to the city's safety record and community dynamics.
Rape incidents in the city have fluctuated over the years. The highest number of reported rapes was 2 in 2011, 2014, and 2016, while several years saw no reported cases. The rape rate per 1,000 people reached its peak at 0.56 in 2014. The city's contribution to the state's total rape cases varied, with the highest percentage being 0.25% in 2014. This variability suggests that while rape is not a persistent problem, it remains an area requiring vigilance.
Robbery in Ellsworth has been a rare occurrence. Only two years, 2015 and 2017, recorded a single robbery each. This translates to a robbery rate of 0.29 per 1,000 people in those years. The city's contribution to the state's total robberies was minimal, peaking at 0.08% in 2017. The infrequency of robberies indicates a generally low risk for this type of crime in the community.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of incidents peaked at 11 in 2017, corresponding to a rate of 3.18 per 1,000 people. The city's contribution to the state's aggravated assaults reached its highest at 0.18% in the same year. Despite fluctuations, aggravated assault remains the primary concern among violent crimes in Ellsworth.
Analyzing correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density decreased from 1,483 per square mile in 2010 to 1,431 in 2022, violent crime incidents showed an overall slight increase, though with significant year-to-year variations. Median rent, which rose from $529 in 2013 to $637 in 2022, does not show a clear correlation with violent crime trends.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (until 2029), we anticipate a slight decrease in overall violent crime incidents. Based on the historical data and current trends, we project that aggravated assaults will likely remain the predominant form of violent crime, but with a potential decline to an average of 4-5 incidents per year. Rape and robbery incidents are expected to remain low, potentially averaging less than one incident per year each.
In summary, Ellsworth has maintained a relatively stable violent crime profile over the past decade, with aggravated assault being the primary concern. The absence of murders, infrequent robberies, and fluctuating but generally low rates of rape paint a picture of a community with manageable violent crime issues. The slight projected decrease in violent crimes for the coming years suggests a potentially improving safety situation for the city's residents.
