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Elberta, Alabama: Property Crime Trends Amid Population Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Elberta, a town in Alabama, has witnessed significant changes in its property crime rates and population demographics from 2010 to 2022. Despite a 10.16% decrease in population from 3,829 to 3,440 residents, the total number of property crimes increased slightly by 1.25%, from 80 to 81 incidents. This trend suggests a complex relationship between population dynamics and crime rates in the area.
Burglary incidents in Elberta have shown considerable fluctuation over the years. In 2010, there were 8 reported burglaries, which peaked at 23 in 2012 (a 187.5% increase), before decreasing to 10 in 2022. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 people rose from 2.09 in 2010 to 6.28 in 2012, then declined to 2.91 in 2022. Notably, Elberta's contribution to state-wide burglary incidents increased, with its share of state burglaries rising from 0.03% in 2010 to 0.09% in 2022.
Larceny-theft incidents in Elberta have shown an overall downward trend. The number of cases decreased from 64 in 2010 to 46 in 2022, representing a 28.13% reduction. The larceny-theft rate per 1,000 people also decreased from 16.71 in 2010 to 13.37 in 2022. However, the town's percentage of state larceny-theft incidents increased slightly from 0.09% in 2010 to 0.10% in 2022, indicating that while local incidents decreased, they did not fall as rapidly as the state average.
Motor vehicle theft in Elberta has seen a significant increase. The number of incidents rose from 8 in 2010 to 25 in 2022, marking a 212.5% increase. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 2.09 in 2010 to 7.27 in 2022. More notably, Elberta's share of state motor vehicle thefts jumped from 0.13% in 2010 to 0.37% in 2022, indicating a substantial increase in the town's contribution to state-wide motor vehicle theft incidents.
Arson data for Elberta is limited, with most years showing no available data. The only recorded data point is for 2022, which shows zero arson incidents. This lack of data makes it impossible to analyze trends or make meaningful comparisons over time for arson cases in the town.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between population density and property crime rates in Elberta. As population density decreased from 548 per square mile in 2010 to 493 in 2022, overall property crime incidents slightly increased. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between the increase in median income (from $36,296 in 2013 to $49,446 in 2022) and the rise in certain types of property crimes, particularly motor vehicle theft.
Based on the available data and applying predictive models, it is projected that by 2029, Elberta may experience a continued increase in motor vehicle thefts, potentially reaching around 35-40 incidents annually. Burglaries are expected to remain relatively stable, fluctuating between 8-12 incidents per year. Larceny-theft may continue its downward trend, potentially decreasing to around 35-40 incidents annually.
In summary, Elberta has experienced a complex evolution in its property crime landscape. While overall property crime incidents have remained relatively stable, there have been significant shifts in the types of crimes committed. The dramatic increase in motor vehicle thefts, coupled with the decrease in larceny-thefts, suggests a changing pattern of criminal activity that may be influenced by factors such as income levels and population density. These trends underscore the importance of targeted crime prevention strategies and continued monitoring of socioeconomic factors in Elberta.
