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El Monte's Property Crime Decline: A Decade of Progress Amidst Population Decrease
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
El Monte, located in California, has experienced significant changes in property crime rates and population dynamics over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 24.7%, from 2,598 to 1,957. During this same period, the city's population declined by 7.3%, from 113,614 to 105,307 residents.
Burglary trends in the city have shown a notable decline over time. In 2010, there were 607 burglaries, which decreased to 443 in 2022, representing a 27% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 people dropped from 5.34 in 2010 to 4.21 in 2022. Despite this decrease, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.33% in 2010 to 0.38% in 2022, indicating that burglaries decreased at a slower rate compared to the state average.
Larceny theft also experienced a downward trend. The number of incidents decreased from 1,194 in 2010 to 990 in 2022, a 17.1% reduction. The larceny theft rate per 1,000 people dropped from 10.51 in 2010 to 9.40 in 2022. The city's percentage of state larceny thefts decreased slightly from 0.23% to 0.20% during this period, suggesting that the city's reduction in larceny theft was roughly in line with state trends.
Motor vehicle theft showed fluctuations but ultimately decreased over the 12-year period. In 2010, there were 797 incidents, which reduced to 524 in 2022, a 34.3% decrease. The rate per 1,000 people fell from 7.01 to 4.98. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.62% to 0.34%, indicating a significant improvement relative to state trends.
Arson cases in the city showed volatility but increased overall. From 13 incidents in 2010, the number rose to 17 in 2022, a 30.8% increase. The arson rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.11 to 0.16. The city's percentage of state arsons rose from 0.21% to 0.27%, suggesting a worsening situation compared to state trends.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $31,852 in 2013 to $59,368 in 2022, total property crimes decreased from 2,182 to 1,957. This suggests that improving economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, it is estimated that by 2029, El Monte could see a further reduction in overall property crimes to approximately 1,700 incidents annually. This projection assumes the continuation of current trends in economic growth and demographic shifts.
In summary, El Monte has made significant strides in reducing most types of property crimes over the past decade, with the exception of arson. The improvements in burglary, larceny theft, and motor vehicle theft rates, coupled with rising median incomes, suggest a positive trajectory for the city's safety and economic well-being. However, the increasing arson rates and the city's growing share of state burglaries highlight areas that may require targeted interventions to ensure continued progress in overall crime reduction.
