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East Peoria Property Crime Trends: A Decade of Decline in the Riverfront City
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
East Peoria, Illinois, a city nestled along the Illinois River, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 21.6%, from 754 to 591 incidents. This decline occurred against a backdrop of population decrease, with the city's population falling by 6.6% from 26,741 in 2010 to 24,985 in 2022.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant downward trend. In 2010, there were 175 burglaries, which decreased to 62 in 2022, representing a 64.6% reduction. When adjusted for population changes, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 6.54 in 2010 to 2.48 in 2022. Interestingly, while the number of burglaries decreased, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, peaking at 0.59% in 2012 before dropping to 0.37% in 2022. This suggests that while the city improved its burglary situation, the reduction was not as pronounced relative to statewide trends.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also showed a declining trend. The number of incidents decreased from 542 in 2010 to 497 in 2022, an 8.3% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents slightly decreased from 20.27 in 2010 to 19.89 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny-theft incidents increased from 0.32% in 2010 to 0.48% in 2022, indicating that while larceny-theft decreased in the city, it did not decrease as rapidly as in other parts of the state.
Motor vehicle theft showed more volatility but ultimately decreased over the period. In 2010, there were 37 incidents, which dropped to 32 in 2022, a 13.5% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents slightly increased from 1.38 in 2010 to 1.28 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.15% in 2010 to 0.11% in 2022, suggesting that the city's improvement in this area was in line with or slightly better than the state average.
Arson cases in the city have shown significant fluctuations. From 7 cases in 2010, it dropped to 1 in 2022, an 85.7% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 0.26 in 2010 to 0.04 in 2022. The city's share of state arson cases decreased from 0.67% in 2010 to 0.15% in 2022, indicating a substantial improvement relative to the state average.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between the declining property crime rates and the city's changing demographics. As the population density decreased from 1,292 per square mile in 2010 to 1,207 in 2022, property crime rates also generally declined. Additionally, the median income increased from $56,889 in 2013 to $64,392 in 2022, which could have contributed to the reduction in property crimes.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued gradual decrease in overall property crime rates. Burglary is expected to continue its downward trend, potentially reaching around 50 incidents per year. Larceny-theft may stabilize around 450-475 incidents annually. Motor vehicle theft is projected to remain relatively stable, fluctuating between 25-35 incidents per year. Arson cases are expected to remain low, with potentially 0-2 incidents annually.
In conclusion, East Peoria has made significant strides in reducing property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in burglary and arson. While challenges remain, especially in larceny-theft, the overall trend suggests a safer community. The city's changing demographics, including increased median income and stable homeownership rates, appear to correlate with these positive changes in crime rates. As the city continues to evolve, maintaining focus on community-based crime prevention strategies will be crucial in sustaining and improving upon these positive trends.
