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Earlville, Illinois: A Decade of Stable Low Violent Crime Rates Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Earlville, located in Illinois, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends over the past decade. From 2012 to 2019, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated between 0 and 2 incidents per year, while the population grew from 2,288 in 2012 to 2,561 in 2019, an increase of 11.9%.
The murder rate in this small city has remained consistently at zero throughout the reported period from 2012 to 2019. This stability in the absence of murders, despite the population growth, indicates a consistently safe environment in terms of this most serious violent crime. The murder rate per 1,000 people has therefore remained at 0, and the city has not contributed to the state's murder statistics during this time.
Rape incidents in the city have been sporadic. In 2014, there was one reported rape, representing 0.03% of the state's total. This translates to a rate of 0.44 per 1,000 residents for that year. In 2019, another rape was reported, accounting for 0.02% of the state's total, with a rate of 0.39 per 1,000 residents. The years 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016, and 2017 saw no reported rapes. This fluctuation suggests that while rape is not a persistent problem, isolated incidents do occur.
Robbery has been virtually non-existent in the city. From 2012 to 2019, there were no reported robberies, maintaining a rate of 0 per 1,000 residents and contributing 0% to the state's robbery statistics. This consistent absence of robberies, even as the population grew, indicates a very low risk for this type of crime in the community.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city, though still at low levels. In 2012, there was 1 aggravated assault, which increased to 2 in 2013 and 2015, representing 0.02% and 0.01% of the state's total respectively. The rate per 1,000 residents was 0.44 in 2012, peaking at 0.89 in 2013, and then decreasing to 0.84 in 2015. By 2016, it had dropped back to 1 incident (0.46 per 1,000), and in 2017 and 2019, no aggravated assaults were reported. This trend shows a general decline in aggravated assaults over time, particularly in recent years.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a weak inverse relationship between population density and violent crime. As population density increased from 1,904 per square mile in 2012 to 2,131 in 2019, the overall violent crime incidents decreased from 1 to 0 in 2017, before slightly increasing to 1 in 2019. However, this correlation is not strong enough to draw definitive conclusions given the small number of incidents.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that the low violent crime rates in Earlville will likely continue for the next five years, up to 2029. The city may experience between 0 to 2 violent crimes annually, with aggravated assault remaining the most likely form of violent crime, albeit still at very low levels.
In summary, Earlville has maintained exceptionally low violent crime rates despite population growth. The absence of murders and robberies, coupled with infrequent occurrences of rape and a declining trend in aggravated assaults, paints a picture of a relatively safe community. These trends, if sustained, suggest that Earlville will continue to be a low-crime area in the coming years, providing a sense of security for its residents.
