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Duffy Neighborhood in Tucson: Shifting Home Values and Ownership Amidst Rising Rents
CATEGORY
Property Value
DATA
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
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Property Value
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
The Duffy neighborhood in Tucson, Arizona, has experienced notable shifts in its housing market dynamics over the past decade. This area has seen fluctuations in homeownership rates, coupled with significant changes in average home prices and rent costs. The overall trend shows a slight decrease in homeownership, while both average home prices and average rent have increased substantially. Examining the relationship between homeownership percentages and average home prices reveals an interesting pattern. In 2013, the neighborhood had a 46% homeownership rate, with average home prices at $167,221. As average home prices steadily increased to $228,674 by 2019, the homeownership rate remained relatively stable, only dropping slightly to 46%. However, a more significant shift occurred between 2019 and 2022. During this period, average home prices surged from $228,674 to $348,292, a remarkable 52% increase. Concurrently, the homeownership rate declined from 46% to 42%, suggesting that rising home prices may have made homeownership less attainable for some residents.
The federal interest rates play a crucial role in homeownership trends. From 2013 to 2020, interest rates remained relatively low, ranging from 0.09% to 2.16%. This period of low interest rates coincided with a relatively stable homeownership rate in Duffy, fluctuating between 44% and 54%. However, as interest rates began to rise sharply from 0.08% in 2021 to 1.68% in 2022, we observe a corresponding drop in homeownership from 46% to 42%. This aligns with the well-established trend that higher interest rates can discourage homeownership due to increased borrowing costs.
Conversely, the renter population in Duffy has shown an upward trend. In 2013, 53% of residents were renters, with average rent at $300. By 2022, the renter percentage increased to 58%, while average rent nearly tripled to $800. This significant rise in average rent, particularly the jump from $709 in 2020 to $800 in 2022, suggests increasing demand for rental properties, possibly driven by those priced out of the homeownership market. The population fluctuations, decreasing from 1,160 in 2013 to 884 in 2022, may have also influenced these trends, potentially indicating a shift in neighborhood demographics.
Looking at the most recent data, average home prices in Duffy slightly decreased from $348,292 in 2022 to $347,795 in 2023, before rebounding to $358,577 in 2024. This represents a modest 3% increase from 2022 to 2024, despite the significant rise in federal interest rates to 5.02% in 2023 and 5.33% in 2024. These high interest rates could potentially slow down home price appreciation in the coming years.
Applying predictive models to forecast 5-year trends, we anticipate a continued but moderate increase in average home prices, potentially reaching around $400,000 by 2029. This projection considers the current high interest rate environment, which may temper rapid price growth. For average rent prices, the forecast suggests a continued upward trajectory, potentially reaching $950-$1,000 per month by 2029, driven by ongoing demand for rental properties in the area.
In summary, the Duffy neighborhood has experienced a gradual shift towards a higher percentage of renters, accompanied by substantial increases in both average home prices and average rent. The interplay between rising home prices, increasing interest rates, and changing demographics has reshaped the housing landscape in this Tucson community. As we look ahead, the neighborhood is likely to see continued growth in both home values and rental costs, albeit at a more moderate pace than in recent years.
