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Duarte's Decade of Declining Violent Crime: Hispanic Population Growth Correlates with Safety
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Duarte, located in California, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends. Over the period from 2010 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in its total violent crime numbers, with a notable overall decrease from 72 incidents in 2010 to 67 in 2022, representing a 6.94% reduction. This decline in violent crime occurred against a backdrop of slight population growth, with the city's population increasing from 21,380 in 2010 to 21,686 in 2022, a 1.43% increase.
The murder rate in the city has shown remarkable stability over the years, with most years reporting zero murders. However, there were notable exceptions in 2013 and 2017, when two murders were reported each year. These incidents represented 0.07% and 0.14% of the state's murders respectively. The murder rate per 1,000 people peaked at 0.093 in 2017 but remained at zero for most other years. This sporadic pattern suggests that while murders are rare in the city, they can occur unexpectedly.
Rape incidents have fluctuated over the years, with a range of 0 to 5 cases annually. The highest number of reported rapes (5) occurred in 2011, 2012, and 2022, representing 0.08%, 0.08%, and 0.04% of the state's total rapes respectively. The rape rate per 1,000 people varied from 0 to 0.23, with the highest rate in 2022. Despite some years showing increases, there's no clear upward trend, indicating that rape remains a persistent but not escalating issue in the community.
Robbery trends show a general decline over the observed period. The number of robberies decreased from 24 in 2010 to 16 in 2022, a 33.33% reduction. The robbery rate per 1,000 people also declined from 1.12 in 2010 to 0.74 in 2022. The city's share of state robberies fluctuated between 0.02% and 0.05%, indicating that while robberies have decreased locally, this trend generally aligns with state-wide patterns.
Aggravated assault cases have shown more variability. The number of incidents increased from 44 in 2010 to 46 in 2022, a 4.55% rise. The rate per 1,000 people slightly increased from 2.06 in 2010 to 2.12 in 2022. The city's proportion of state aggravated assaults remained relatively stable, ranging between 0.03% and 0.07%, suggesting that local trends generally mirror those at the state level.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate relationship between violent crime trends and changes in racial demographics. As the Hispanic population percentage increased from 44% in 2013 to 50% in 2022, there was a concurrent decrease in overall violent crime. This suggests that demographic shifts may have influenced crime patterns, though causation cannot be inferred.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued gradual decline in overall violent crime rates. Based on historical patterns, robberies are expected to decrease further, while aggravated assaults may stabilize or slightly increase. Murder rates are likely to remain very low, with possible sporadic incidents. Rape cases are projected to fluctuate but maintain a relatively stable average.
In summary, Duarte has experienced a modest overall reduction in violent crime from 2010 to 2022, despite a slight population increase. The most significant improvements have been in robbery rates, while aggravated assaults have seen a small uptick. The city's violent crime trends generally align with state patterns, suggesting that local factors are not drastically altering crime dynamics compared to broader regional trends. As the community continues to evolve demographically, ongoing monitoring and adaptive crime prevention strategies will be crucial to maintain and potentially improve upon these positive trends in the coming years.
