Robbery trends in the city have been minimal. Only two incidents were reported over the 13-year period: two robberies in 2011 and one in 2020. In 2011, with a population of 3,048, the robbery rate was 0.66 per 1,000 people, representing 0.03% of the state's robberies. In 2020, with a population of 2,708, the rate was 0.37 per 1,000 people, accounting for 0.02% of state robberies. These isolated incidents suggest that robbery is not a persistent issue in the community.

Aggravated assault occurrences have been similarly infrequent. The city reported one incident each in 2011, 2014, and 2017. In 2011, with a population of 3,048, the rate was 0.33 per 1,000 people. In 2014, with 2,829 residents, the rate was 0.35 per 1,000. In 2017, with 2,656 residents, the rate increased slightly to 0.38 per 1,000. Each incident represented 0.01% of the state's aggravated assaults in their respective years. The sporadic nature of these events indicates that aggravated assault is not a chronic problem in the city.

An examination of correlations between violent crime trends and other factors reveals limited insights due to the low crime numbers. However, it's worth noting that the city's population density decreased from 2,347 per square mile in 2010 to 2,055 in 2022, coinciding with the overall population decline. During this period, the median rent increased from $608 in 2013 to $806 in 2022, a 32.6% rise. The racial composition remained predominantly white, with a slight increase from 87% in 2013 to 89% in 2022.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) is challenging due to the inconsistent and low number of incidents. However, based on the historical data, it's reasonable to project that Drexel will likely continue to experience very low levels of violent crime, with potential for 0-3 incidents per year, maintaining its status as a relatively safe community.

In summary, Drexel has demonstrated a remarkably low incidence of violent crime over the past decade. Despite a declining population and increasing median rent, the city has maintained a safe environment with only sporadic and isolated violent incidents. The consistent absence of murders, rare occurrences of robberies and aggravated assaults, and the lack of reported rapes paint a picture of a community with minimal violent crime concerns. These findings suggest that Drexel remains a relatively secure place to live, with violent crime rates significantly below state averages.