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Dramatic Decline in Violent Crime: Momence, Illinois Defies Population Decrease
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Momence, located in Illinois, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2020, the total number of violent crimes in this small community fluctuated significantly, starting at 31 in 2010 and decreasing to just 2 in 2020, marking a substantial 93.5% reduction. During this same period, the population declined from 5,193 in 2010 to 4,578 in 2020, a 11.8% decrease.
Examining murder trends, Momence has maintained a consistent record of zero murders from 2010 to 2020. This stability is particularly noteworthy given the population decline, resulting in a consistent murder rate of 0 per 1,000 residents throughout the decade. The city's contribution to the state's murder statistics has remained at 0% during this period, highlighting its relative safety in this most serious category of violent crime.
Rape statistics in the city show minimal occurrences. There was one reported case in 2012 and another in 2017, representing 0.06% and 0.02% of the state's total rapes in those years, respectively. The rape rate per 1,000 residents was 0.19 in 2012 and 0.21 in 2017, showing a slight increase relative to the population. However, with zero reported cases in other years, including 2020, the overall trend suggests a very low incidence of this crime.
Robbery trends in Momence have been sporadic but generally low. The city reported one robbery in 2010, two in 2017, and one in 2018, with no robberies in other years including 2020. The robbery rate per 1,000 residents peaked at 0.43 in 2017, decreasing to 0 by 2020. The city's contribution to state robbery statistics ranged from 0% to 0.01%, indicating a minimal impact on overall state crime figures.
Aggravated assault has shown the most significant fluctuations among violent crimes in the city. In 2010, there were 30 cases, which sharply declined to 3 cases by 2012. The rate then varied, with 6 cases in 2017, 3 in 2018, and stabilizing at 2 cases in 2020. The aggravated assault rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 5.78 in 2010 to 0.44 in 2020, a notable 92.4% reduction. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault figures also dropped significantly, from 0.12% in 2010 to 0.01% in 2020.
There appears to be a correlation between the declining population density and the overall reduction in violent crimes. As the population density decreased from 3,289 per square mile in 2010 to 2,899 in 2020, the total number of violent crimes also fell. Additionally, there seems to be a weak inverse correlation between the increasing Hispanic population (from 16% in 2013 to 23% in 2022) and the decreasing violent crime rates, though this relationship requires further investigation to establish causality.
Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), Momence could see its violent crime rate stabilize at very low levels, potentially averaging 1-2 incidents per year. The aggravated assault rate is expected to remain the primary contributor to this figure, while murder, rape, and robbery rates are likely to remain at or near zero.
In conclusion, Momence has demonstrated a remarkable improvement in its violent crime statistics over the past decade. The consistent absence of murders, infrequent occurrences of rape and robbery, and significant reduction in aggravated assaults paint a picture of a community that has become increasingly safer. These trends, coupled with demographic shifts and population changes, suggest that Momence is likely to maintain its low violent crime rates in the near future, positioning it as a relatively safe small city within Illinois.
