Robbery trends have been more positive, showing a decrease over time. In 2010, there were 118 robberies, which decreased to 44 in 2022, a 62.7% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people fell from 1.784 in 2010 to 0.624 in 2022. However, the city's share of state robberies decreased only slightly from 3.97% to 3.36%, suggesting that while improvements have been made, the city still contributes significantly to the state's robbery statistics.

Aggravated assault cases have shown a dramatic increase. In 2010, there were 263 cases, which rose to 632 in 2022, a 140.3% increase. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 3.977 in 2010 to 8.961 in 2022. The city's share of state aggravated assaults rose from 4.38% to 5.55%. This substantial increase in aggravated assaults is a major contributor to the overall rise in violent crime in the city.

There appears to be a correlation between the increase in violent crime and population density. As the population density increased from 735 people per square mile in 2010 to 785 in 2022, violent crime rates also rose. Additionally, median rent increased from $682 in 2013 to $832 in 2022, which coincides with the period of rising violent crime rates. This could suggest a potential link between economic pressures and crime rates.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends, it is estimated that by 2029, Dothan may see its violent crime rate increase by approximately 25-30% if current trends continue. This would potentially result in around 930-975 violent crimes per year.

In summary, Dothan has experienced a significant increase in violent crime over the past decade, particularly in murders and aggravated assaults, while seeing some improvement in robbery rates. The rise in violent crime, coupled with population growth and increasing population density, presents a complex challenge for law enforcement and city officials. As Dothan continues to grow, addressing these crime trends will be crucial for maintaining public safety and the city's quality of life.