Robbery trends in the city have remained relatively low and stable. The number of robberies ranged from 0 to 4 incidents per year between 2010 and 2022. The highest number (4) occurred in 2015 and 2016, representing 0.03% and 0.02% of state robberies respectively. By 2022, there was only 1 robbery, accounting for 0.01% of state robberies. The robbery rate per 1,000 residents has consistently remained below 0.21, with the 2022 rate at 0.05.

Aggravated assault incidents have shown some fluctuation but with a general downward trend. In 2010, there were 13 cases, peaking at 13 again in 2017, before decreasing to 12 in 2022. This represents a 7.7% decrease from 2010 to 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents has remained relatively stable, from 0.69 in 2010 to 0.63 in 2022. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault cases increased from 0.05% in 2010 to 0.09% in 2022, indicating a slight increase in the city's share of these incidents relative to the state.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As population density increased from 2,232 per square mile in 2010 to 2,256 in 2022, the overall violent crime rate decreased. Additionally, there seems to be a weak correlation between changes in racial demographics and violent crime trends. The percentage of white residents decreased slightly from 82% in 2013 to 81% in 2022, while the percentage of Black residents increased from 7% to 9% during the same period. However, these changes are minimal and do not strongly correlate with violent crime trends.

Applying predictive models based on the current trends, it's estimated that by 2029 (five years from now), Dixon may see a further reduction in overall violent crimes. The rape and robbery rates are likely to stabilize at their current low levels, while aggravated assaults may continue to fluctuate but remain below 15 incidents per year. The murder rate is expected to remain at or near zero, barring any unforeseen circumstances.

In conclusion, Dixon has demonstrated a generally positive trend in violent crime reduction over the past decade. The most significant improvements have been in the areas of rape and robbery, while aggravated assaults have shown more variability. The city's ability to maintain a very low murder rate is particularly noteworthy. These trends, coupled with the slight population growth, suggest that Dixon has been effective in managing public safety concerns and may continue to see improvements in the coming years.