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Desert Uplands: Rising Home Values and Shifting Ownership in Mesa's Dynamic Neighborhood
CATEGORY
Property Value
DATA
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
Loading Content...
Property Value
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
Desert Uplands, a neighborhood in Mesa, Arizona, has undergone significant changes in its housing market over the past decade. This area has experienced a notable shift in homeownership rates and property values, reflecting broader economic trends and local market dynamics. The neighborhood has generally maintained a high percentage of owner-occupied homes, though this has been gradually decreasing, while average home prices and average rent prices have shown substantial increases over time.
The relationship between homeownership percentage and average home prices in Desert Uplands reveals an interesting inverse trend. In 2013, the neighborhood had a 94% homeownership rate, with average home prices at $406,120. As average home prices steadily increased, reaching $892,159 in 2022, the homeownership rate declined to 86%. This pattern suggests that rising home values may have made homeownership less attainable for some residents. Between 2013 and 2022, average home prices more than doubled, while the percentage of owner-occupied homes decreased by 8 percentage points.
Federal interest rates have played a role in homeownership trends in Desert Uplands. In 2013, when interest rates were at a low 0.11%, the neighborhood saw its highest homeownership rate of 94%. As interest rates began to rise, particularly after 2016 when they increased from 0.4% to 1%, and then to 1.83% in 2018, the homeownership rate in Desert Uplands started to decline more noticeably. By 2022, with interest rates at 1.68%, the homeownership rate had dropped to 86%, indicating that higher borrowing costs may have deterred some potential buyers.
The trend in renter percentages and average rent prices shows a general increase in both metrics over time. In 2013, only 6% of the neighborhood's housing units were renter-occupied, with an average rent of $1,430. By 2022, the percentage of renters had more than doubled to 14%, while the average rent increased to $1,499. This trend suggests that as home prices rose, more residents may have turned to renting. The population of Desert Uplands also grew significantly during this period, from 4,337 in 2013 to 6,849 in 2022, which could have contributed to increased demand for rental properties.
Examining the most recent data, average home prices in Desert Uplands slightly decreased from $892,159 in 2022 to $884,307 in 2023, marking the first decline in over a decade. However, prices rebounded to $918,346 in 2024. This recent fluctuation coincides with a sharp increase in federal interest rates, which rose from 1.68% in 2022 to 5.02% in 2023 and further to 5.33% in 2024. These higher interest rates may be influencing buyer behavior and market dynamics in the neighborhood.
Applying predictive models to forecast 5-year trends, it is anticipated that average home prices in Desert Uplands will continue to rise, albeit at a more moderate pace than seen in recent years. The average home price could potentially reach around $1,050,000 by 2029. Average rent prices are also expected to increase, possibly reaching approximately $1,700 per month in the same timeframe. These projections assume a continuation of current economic conditions and local market trends.
In summary, Desert Uplands has experienced a significant transformation in its housing market over the past decade. The most important findings include the inverse relationship between rising home prices and declining homeownership rates, the impact of federal interest rates on homeownership trends, and the growing rental market in the neighborhood. The recent stabilization of home prices and the sharp increase in interest rates suggest that the market may be entering a new phase, potentially affecting future homeownership rates and property values in this evolving Mesa neighborhood.
