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Demographics
Population
Median Income
Racial Distributions
San Bernardino, California, is classified as a "Racial Majority" community with a Hispanic population of 69% as of 2022. The city has undergone significant demographic and economic changes over the past decade, transitioning from a "Majority-Minority" community to one with a clear Hispanic majority. In 2022, San Bernardino had a population of 220,314 and a median income of $62,801.
From 2013 to 2022, San Bernardino experienced a notable transition in its racial composition. In 2013, the city was categorized as "Majority-Minority," with Hispanics comprising 62% of the population, followed by Whites (17%) and Blacks (13%). By 2022, the Hispanic population had grown to 69%, solidifying the city's status as a "Racial Majority" community. This shift was accompanied by declines in the White (13%) and Black (11%) populations. The city has maintained low but stable Asian (4-5%) and multi-racial (2-3%) populations throughout this period.
The demographic shifts correlate with significant changes in median income. From 2013 to 2022, the median income rose from $37,440 to $62,801, an increase of about 68%. The most dramatic increase occurred between 2019 and 2021, coinciding with the solidification of the Hispanic majority. Population growth has been moderate, increasing from 213,700 in 2013 to 220,314 in 2022, suggesting that economic improvements are not solely due to population influx.
The trends observed in San Bernardino align with broader patterns seen in many California cities, including increasing Hispanic populations in urban areas, general upward trends in median income, particularly in the years following the 2008 financial crisis recovery, and gradual displacement or relocation of White and Black populations from certain urban centers.
Based on the observed trends, several hypotheses can be made for San Bernardino's future. There may be continued consolidation of the Hispanic majority, potentially reaching or exceeding 75% of the population within the next decade. This could transition the city from a "Racial Majority" to a "Low Diversity" category, but with Hispanic rather than White dominance. Further increases in median income are possible, though potentially at a slower rate than observed in the past few years. There may be a stabilization or slight decline in overall population as housing costs potentially rise with incomes, potentially leading to some outmigration of lower-income residents.
The city may experience economic and cultural shifts aligned with a predominantly Hispanic population, potentially influencing local businesses, education systems, and community services. There is a possibility of renewed interest in the city from other demographic groups if economic opportunities continue to improve, which could eventually lead back to a more diverse population mix in the long term. This analysis suggests that San Bernardino is likely to continue its trajectory as a predominantly Hispanic city with improving economic indicators, though the pace and sustainability of these changes will depend on broader economic and social factors at both the state and national levels.