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Demographic Shifts and Racial Composition in San Rafael, California: 2013-2022
CATEGORY
Demographics
DATA
Population
Median Income
Racial Distributions
DATA SOURCE
United States Census Bureau: American Community Survey Data (ACS)
San Rafael, California, exhibits a demographic profile characterized as a "Moderate Diversity" community with a "White Plurality." As of 2022, the white population comprises 57% of the city, while Hispanic residents account for 32%. The city's economic status is affluent, with a median income of $109,128 in 2022, exceeding the national average.
Over the past decade, San Rafael has experienced a gradual shift in its racial composition. The white population decreased from 59% in 2013 to 57% in 2022, while the Hispanic population increased from 28% in 2013 to 32% in 2022. The Asian population remained stable at 6%, and the Black population slightly decreased from 2% to 1%. This trend indicates a slow but steady movement towards a more diverse community.
The demographic changes have occurred alongside significant economic growth. The median income rose from $93,667 in 2013 to $109,128 in 2022, an increase of about 16.5%. The population grew modestly from 60,534 in 2013 to 61,628 in 2022. The increasing diversity, particularly the growth in the Hispanic population, correlates with rising median incomes, suggesting that the city has been attracting or retaining a more diverse, affluent population.
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San Rafael's trends align with broader California patterns of increasing diversity and rising incomes in urban areas. The city's income growth outpaces national averages, indicating a robust local economy that's attracting diverse, high-earning residents.
Based on the observed trends, San Rafael is likely to continue its trajectory towards increased diversity and economic prosperity. Predictions include a potential transition to "High Diversity" within the next decade if the Hispanic population continues to grow at its current rate and other minority populations increase slightly. Continued income growth is expected, potentially reaching a median income of $120,000-$130,000 by 2030 if current trends persist. A possible emergence of a "Transitional Community" status may occur, particularly if the growth of the Hispanic population and other minority groups accelerates.
San Rafael exemplifies a community in gradual transition, balancing economic growth with increasing diversity. This evolution presents opportunities for cultural enrichment and economic development, while also potentially bringing challenges in terms of housing affordability and community integration that local policymakers will need to address.
