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Demographic and Economic Trends in Lincoln/San Rafael Hill: A White Majority Neighborhood in Transition
CATEGORY
Demographics
DATA
Population
Median Income
Racial Distributions
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Demographics
Population
Median Income
Racial Distributions
The Lincoln/San Rafael Hill neighborhood in San Rafael, California, is classified as a White Majority community with a median income of $100,466 as of 2022. This area has undergone significant demographic and economic changes over the past decade, evolving from a more economically diverse neighborhood to an increasingly affluent one. The neighborhood is known for its views of the San Francisco Bay and proximity to China Camp State Park.
In 2013, Lincoln/San Rafael Hill was categorized as a White Majority community, with 54% of the population identifying as white. Over the next decade, the neighborhood maintained this classification, with some fluctuations. The white population percentage reached its lowest point in 2021 at 45%, briefly shifting the area into a Moderate Diversity category, before returning to a White Majority status in 2022 with 51% white residents.
The Hispanic population has remained the second-largest group, consistently representing around 31-35% of the community. This stability suggests that the neighborhood could be considered on the cusp of becoming a Transitional Community, especially given the slight increase in Asian and multiracial populations over the years.
The neighborhood has experienced an increase in median income, rising from $57,217 in 2013 to $100,466 in 2022. This growth in affluence correlates with subtle shifts in racial demographics. As the median income rose, there was a slight decrease in the white population percentage and small increases in Asian and multiracial populations, suggesting a trend towards increased economic diversity alongside racial diversity.
The population has remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 2,600 and 3,200 residents over the decade. The peak population of 3,256 in 2017 coincided with a significant increase in median income from $62,748 in 2016 to $90,458 in 2017, possibly indicating an influx of higher-income residents during this period.
The economic trajectory of Lincoln/San Rafael Hill reflects broader trends in the San Francisco Bay Area, where increasing property values and high-paying tech jobs have led to significant income growth in many neighborhoods. The relative stability of the Hispanic population in this neighborhood is notable, as many other Bay Area communities have experienced more pronounced displacement of minority populations due to gentrification.
The median household income in Lincoln/San Rafael Hill ($100,466 in 2022) is higher than the national median ($70,784 in 2021), indicating the area's affluence. This economic status, combined with the neighborhood's maintained diversity, suggests that Lincoln/San Rafael Hill has balanced economic growth with some level of demographic stability.
In conclusion, while Lincoln/San Rafael Hill has maintained its status as a White Majority community, it shows signs of evolving towards greater diversity, both racially and economically. The income growth paired with subtle demographic shifts indicates a neighborhood in transition, reflecting broader regional trends while maintaining its unique character.
