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Demographic Analysis of Confluence, Pennsylvania: A Study of Race and Population Trends
CATEGORY
Demographics
DATA
Population
Median Income
Racial Distributions
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Demographics
Population
Median Income
Racial Distributions
Confluence in Pennsylvania is characterized as a community with Low Diversity, predominantly composed of a White population (92% in 2022). The median income in 2022 was $43,653, which is comparatively low. The population has been declining, decreasing from 727 in 2010 to 529 in 2022.
Throughout the observed period, Confluence has maintained its status as a Low Diversity community, with the White population consistently above 90%. However, subtle signs of increasing diversity are present. The White population decreased from 99% in 2014 to 92% in 2022. The Black population increased from 0% in 2014 to 2% in 2022. The Two or More Races category grew from 0% in 2014 to 5% in 2022. These changes, while minor, suggest a slow trend towards increased diversity.
The median income in Confluence has fluctuated but shows an overall increasing trend. It rose from $31,808 in 2013 to $53,825 in 2021, before dropping to $43,653 in 2022. This overall increase in median income has occurred despite a declining population, which fell from 736 in 2013 to 529 in 2022. The increasing median income alongside decreasing population might suggest that while some residents are leaving, those who remain are experiencing improved economic conditions.
The slow increase in diversity is consistent with national trends towards greater racial diversity in many communities. The fluctuating but generally increasing median income, despite population decline, might reflect broader economic recovery trends post-2008 recession, with the recent drop potentially tied to the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Based on the observed trends, Confluence will likely continue to experience slow but steady increases in diversity over the coming years. However, given the current demographic composition, it is unlikely to transition out of the Low Diversity category in the near future. The community might be categorized as a Transitional Community if the trends of increasing representation from Black residents and those of Two or More Races continue or accelerate.
Economically, if the trend of population decline continues alongside generally increasing median incomes, it could suggest a shift towards a smaller but potentially more affluent community. However, the recent drop in median income bears watching, as it could indicate economic challenges that might impact future demographic trends.
In conclusion, while Confluence remains a Low Diversity community with economic challenges, subtle demographic shifts and overall positive income trends suggest a slowly evolving landscape. Monitoring these trends in the coming years will be crucial to understanding the long-term trajectory of this small Pennsylvania borough.
