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Decreasing Violent Crime Trends in Lebanon, Illinois: A Small City's Progress
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Lebanon, Illinois, a small community with a population of 4,924 in 2022, has experienced notable changes in its violent crime profile over recent years. From 2016 to 2019, the total number of violent crimes decreased by 66.67%, from 9 to 3 incidents, while the population grew by 1.55% during the same period. This significant reduction in violent crime, coupled with population growth, suggests an improving safety environment for residents.
The city has maintained a consistently low murder rate, with no reported cases of murder or nonnegligent manslaughter from 2016 to 2019. This absence of murders, despite population growth, indicates a stable and safe environment in terms of the most serious violent crimes. The percentage of state crime for murder has remained at 0% throughout this period, highlighting the city's positive standing relative to Illinois as a whole.
Rape incidents in the city showed a decreasing trend, falling from 5 cases in 2016 to 0 in 2019, representing a 100% decrease. When considering population changes, the rape rate per 1,000 people dropped from 1.23 in 2016 to 0 in 2019. The city's contribution to the state's rape cases also decreased significantly, from 0.14% in 2016 to 0% in 2019. This substantial improvement in rape statistics suggests effective prevention and law enforcement strategies.
Robbery cases in Lebanon have also seen a positive trend, decreasing from 3 incidents in 2016 to 0 in 2019, a 100% reduction. The robbery rate per 1,000 residents fell from 0.74 in 2016 to 0 in 2019. The city's share of state robbery cases dropped from 0.02% to 0%, indicating a complete elimination of this crime type within the reported period.
Aggravated assault cases showed a more complex pattern. While increasing from 1 case in 2016 to 3 cases in 2019, this represents a 200% increase. However, when accounting for population growth, the rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.25 in 2016 to 0.73 in 2019. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault cases rose slightly from 0% to 0.01%, suggesting a minor increase in the city's share of this crime type relative to Illinois overall.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 1,505 per square mile in 2016 to 1,528 in 2019, total violent crimes decreased. This suggests that the growing community has managed to maintain and even improve safety despite becoming more densely populated.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), based on the overall decreasing trend observed from 2016 to 2019, it's anticipated that Lebanon will continue to see a reduction in violent crimes. The complete elimination of certain crime categories like rape and robbery by 2019 suggests that these improvements may be sustainable. However, the slight uptick in aggravated assaults warrants continued attention from law enforcement to prevent any potential reversal of the overall positive trend.
In summary, Lebanon has demonstrated a remarkable improvement in its violent crime profile from 2016 to 2019. The absence of murders, elimination of rape and robbery cases, and overall decrease in violent crimes despite population growth paint a picture of a community that has made significant strides in enhancing public safety. While the increase in aggravated assaults presents an area for continued focus, the broader context suggests that Lebanon is moving towards becoming an increasingly safe place for its residents.
