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Declining Violent Crime Trends in Erlanger, Kentucky: A Decade of Improvement
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Erlanger, Kentucky, a city of 21,441 residents as of 2022, has experienced notable fluctuations in its violent crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes decreased by 61.11%, from 36 to 14 incidents, while the population grew by 3.58% during the same period.
The murder rate in the city has remained consistently low, with only two reported cases over the 13-year period, occurring in 2012 and 2013. This translates to an average of 0.007 murders per 1,000 people. The percentage of state murders attributed to the city peaked at 1% in 2013 but has since remained at 0%. This indicates that murder is an extremely rare occurrence in the city, suggesting a relatively safe environment in terms of homicides.
Rape incidents have shown variability over the years, peaking at 13 cases in 2010 and dropping to a low of 3 cases in 2017. In 2022, there were 5 reported rapes, representing a 61.54% decrease from 2010. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 0.63 in 2010 to 0.23 in 2022. The city's contribution to state rape cases fluctuated, reaching a high of 1.67% in 2010 and settling at 0.69% in 2022. This downward trend suggests improved safety for residents regarding sexual violence.
Robbery incidents have shown a significant decline, from 22 cases in 2011 to just 1 case in 2022, marking a 95.45% decrease. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 1.05 in 2011 to 0.05 in 2022. The city's share of state robberies also decreased from 0.67% in 2011 to 0.14% in 2022. This substantial reduction in robberies indicates a considerable improvement in public safety and property security.
Aggravated assault cases have fluctuated but show an overall decreasing trend. From a high of 15 cases in 2015, the number dropped to 8 in 2022, representing a 46.67% decrease. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 0.69 in 2015 to 0.37 in 2022. The city's contribution to state aggravated assaults rose from 0.39% in 2015 to 0.49% in 2022, suggesting that while local incidents have decreased, they haven't fallen as rapidly as the state average.
There appears to be a moderate correlation between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 2,466 per square mile in 2010 to 2,555 in 2022, the overall violent crime rate decreased. This suggests that the city has managed to maintain and even improve public safety despite growing denser.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a continued gradual decrease in overall violent crime rates if current trends persist. The model suggests that by 2029, the city might see fewer than 10 total violent crimes annually, with robbery and murder rates potentially approaching zero.
In summary, Erlanger has made significant strides in reducing violent crime over the past decade, particularly in robbery and aggravated assault. The city has maintained a very low murder rate and has seen improvements in rape statistics. These trends, coupled with population growth and increased density, suggest effective law enforcement strategies and community engagement in crime prevention. If these trends continue, Erlanger is poised to become an even safer community in the coming years, potentially serving as a model for similar-sized cities in crime reduction efforts.
