Loading Content...
Declining Property Crime Trends in Pana, Illinois: A City Bucking the Population Decrease
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Pana, Illinois, a small community with a population of 6,658 as of 2022, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2017, the total number of property crimes decreased by 20.9%, from 110 to 87 incidents. This decline occurred against a backdrop of population decrease, with the city's population falling by 13.6% during the same period.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a volatile trend. In 2010, there were 29 burglaries, which increased to 35 in 2013, representing a 20.7% rise. However, by 2017, burglaries had decreased to 23 incidents, a 34.3% drop from the 2013 peak. When considering population changes, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents increased from 3.77 in 2010 to 4.73 in 2013, before declining to 3.16 in 2017. Notably, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, rising from 0.05% in 2010 to 0.08% in 2013 and 2014, before settling at 0.07% in 2017. This suggests that while overall burglaries decreased, the city's contribution to state totals remained relatively stable.
Larceny-theft incidents showed a downward trend over the observed period. From 76 cases in 2010, the number dropped to 59 in 2017, a 22.4% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents also declined from 9.87 in 2010 to 8.11 in 2017. Despite this decrease, the city's share of state larceny-theft incidents remained relatively constant, hovering around 0.04% to 0.05% throughout the period. This indicates that the reduction in larceny-theft was largely in line with statewide trends.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed some variability but remained relatively low. From 5 incidents in 2010, it peaked at 10 in 2012, before decreasing to 5 again in 2017. The rate per 1,000 residents followed a similar pattern, peaking at 1.34 in 2012 and returning to 0.69 in 2017. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated between 0.01% and 0.05%, with the highest percentage (0.05%) recorded in 2014. This suggests that while motor vehicle theft is not a major concern for the city, it can experience occasional spikes.
Arson cases in the city were extremely rare, with only one incident reported in 2010 and 2011, and none reported in subsequent years. This single incident represented 0.1% and 0.11% of state arsons in 2010 and 2011, respectively. The absence of arson cases in later years indicates that it is not a significant ongoing concern for the community.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $39,179 in 2013 to $53,087 in 2019, total property crimes decreased from 101 to 87 between 2013 and 2017. Additionally, there seems to be a slight positive correlation between the percentage of owner-occupied housing and reduced property crime rates. As owner occupancy increased from 74% in 2013 to 77% in 2017, property crimes declined during the same period.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued gradual decline in overall property crime rates. Based on the historical data and current trends, it's estimated that total property crimes could decrease by approximately 10-15% by 2029. This projection takes into account the ongoing population decline and the increasing median income trends observed in recent years.
In summary, Pana has experienced a general decline in property crime rates over the past decade, with notable reductions in burglary and larceny-theft. The city's share of state property crimes has remained relatively stable, indicating that local crime trends largely mirror statewide patterns. The correlation between rising median incomes and declining crime rates, coupled with increasing home ownership, suggests a positive trajectory for community safety. However, ongoing monitoring and community engagement will be crucial to maintain and further improve these trends in the coming years.
