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Declining Property Crime Trends in Monongahela, Pennsylvania: A Decade of Change
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Monongahela, located in Pennsylvania, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2019, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, ultimately decreasing by 37.6% from 133 incidents in 2010 to 83 in 2019. During this same period, the population declined by 5.4% from 4,372 to 4,137 residents, suggesting a complex interplay between demographic changes and crime rates.
Burglary rates in the city have shown significant volatility over the years. In 2010, there were 22 burglaries, which increased to a peak of 39 in 2012, representing a 77.3% increase. However, by 2019, burglaries had decreased to 14 incidents, a 36.4% reduction from 2010 levels. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents rose from 5.03 in 2010 to 9.06 in 2012, before falling to 3.38 in 2019. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated dramatically, from 0.09% in 2010 to a high of 0.22% in 2015, ending at 0.58% in 2019. This sharp increase in the state share, despite fewer incidents, suggests a potential shift in the distribution of burglaries across Pennsylvania.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, demonstrated a general downward trend. In 2010, there were 107 incidents, which decreased to 61 in 2019, a 43% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 24.47 in 2010 to 14.74 in 2019. The city's portion of state larceny-theft incidents remained relatively stable, hovering around 0.14-0.16% for most years, before jumping to 0.65% in 2019. This sudden increase in state share, despite fewer incidents, mirrors the trend seen in burglaries and warrants further investigation into statewide crime patterns.
Motor vehicle theft in the area showed minor fluctuations but remained relatively low throughout the decade. The number of incidents ranged from a low of 3 in 2013 to a high of 8 in 2017 and 2019. The rate per 1,000 residents varied accordingly, from 0.70 in 2013 to 1.93 in 2019. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased significantly from 0.04% in 2010 to 0.81% in 2019, again reflecting a broader shift in the distribution of this crime across Pennsylvania.
Arson cases were sporadic and rare in the city. Only four incidents were reported over the decade: one each in 2010, 2011, and 2014, and two in 2017. The rate per 1,000 residents never exceeded 0.48 (in 2017). The city's share of state arson cases fluctuated between 0% and 0.25%, with no clear trend due to the low number of incidents.
Examining correlations between crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density decreased from 2,285 per square mile in 2010 to 2,162 in 2019, there was a corresponding decline in overall property crime rates. This suggests that the reduced concentration of people may have contributed to fewer opportunities for property crimes. Additionally, the median income rose from $41,396 in 2013 to $49,569 in 2019, coinciding with the general downward trend in property crimes. This correlation might indicate that improved economic conditions could be associated with reduced property crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall downward trend, albeit at a slower rate. Burglaries are projected to stabilize around 12-15 incidents per year, while larceny-theft may continue to decrease slightly, potentially reaching 55-58 incidents annually by 2029. Motor vehicle thefts are expected to remain low, fluctuating between 5-7 incidents per year. Arson cases are likely to remain rare and sporadic.
In summary, Monongahela has experienced a notable decrease in property crimes over the past decade, particularly in burglaries and larceny-thefts. This trend has occurred against a backdrop of declining population and increasing median income. The city's increasing share of state crime percentages, despite lower absolute numbers, suggests a changing landscape of property crime distribution across Pennsylvania. As the city moves forward, maintaining economic growth and community engagement could be key factors in sustaining the downward trend in property crimes.
