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Declining Property Crime Trends in Glen Ellyn: A Decade of Improvement
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Glen Ellyn, located in Illinois, is a suburban community with a rich history and evolving demographic landscape. Over the past decade, the city has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates alongside steady population growth. From 2010 to 2020, the total number of property crimes decreased by 37.3%, from 389 to 244 incidents, while the population increased by 0.22% from 33,694 to 33,769.5 residents.
Burglary trends in the city have shown a significant decline over the years. In 2010, there were 58 reported burglaries, which decreased to 28 in 2020, representing a 51.7% reduction. When considering the population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 1.72 in 2010 to 0.83 in 2020. Interestingly, despite this decrease, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.11% in 2010 to 0.14% in 2020. This suggests that while burglaries have decreased locally, they may have decreased at a faster rate at the state level.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also experienced a downward trend. In 2010, there were 325 reported incidents, which decreased to 219 in 2019 (the last year with available data), marking a 32.6% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 9.65 in 2010 to 6.52 in 2019. The city's share of state larceny-theft cases decreased from 0.19% in 2010 to 0.16% in 2019, indicating a slightly faster decline compared to the state average.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been more volatile. In 2010, there were 6 reported incidents, which increased to 9 in 2020, representing a 50% increase. However, the rate per 1,000 residents only increased slightly from 0.18 in 2010 to 0.27 in 2020. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts tripled from 0.02% in 2010 to 0.06% in 2020, suggesting a significant increase relative to state trends.
Arson cases in the city have been relatively low and inconsistent. In 2010, there were 5 reported incidents, which decreased to 0 in 2020. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 0.15 in 2010 to 0 in 2020. The city's share of state arson cases fluctuated dramatically, from 0.48% in 2010 to 0% in 2020, indicating high variability in this rare crime category.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $107,345 in 2013 to $126,203 in 2020, total property crimes decreased from 291 to 244 during the same period. Additionally, there's a noticeable correlation between the increase in racial diversity and the decrease in property crimes. The percentage of white residents decreased from 84% in 2013 to 81% in 2020, while property crimes declined during this period.
Applying predictive models based on historical trends, it's projected that by 2029, property crime rates may continue to decrease slightly. Burglaries could potentially drop to around 20-25 incidents per year, larceny-theft might stabilize around 180-200 cases annually, and motor vehicle thefts may fluctuate between 8-12 incidents per year. Arson cases are expected to remain very low, possibly averaging 0-1 incidents annually.
In summary, Glen Ellyn has experienced a general downward trend in property crimes over the past decade, particularly in burglaries and larceny-thefts. This positive trend has occurred alongside increasing median income and growing racial diversity. While motor vehicle thefts have shown some increase, the overall property crime landscape in the city appears to be improving, reflecting broader socioeconomic changes and potentially effective law enforcement strategies.
