Robbery trends show a general decline over the period. From a high of 6 incidents in 2010 (0.08% of state total), robberies decreased to zero reported cases in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 0.39 in 2010 to 0 in 2022, suggesting improved safety regarding this type of crime.

Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent violent crime in the city. The number of incidents fluctuated significantly, peaking at 33 cases in 2016 (0.17% of state total) and dropping to 16 cases in 2022 (0.07% of state total). The rate per 1,000 people ranged from 0.46 in 2010 to 2.16 in 2016, ending at 1.03 in 2022. Despite fluctuations, the overall trend shows a decrease in aggravated assaults over the 13-year period.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 1,792 per square mile in 2010 to 1,835 in 2022, violent crime rates showed some fluctuation but generally decreased. This suggests that the city has managed to maintain or improve safety despite increasing density.

The racial composition of the city has remained relatively stable, with a slight decrease in the white population from 89% in 2013 to 86% in 2022, and a small increase in Hispanic residents from 5% to 6% over the same period. The stability in racial demographics does not seem to correlate strongly with violent crime trends.

Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it's projected that violent crime in Dayton may continue to decrease slightly over the next five years (up to 2029). The total number of violent crimes could potentially drop to around 15 incidents per year, with aggravated assaults likely remaining the most common type of violent crime.

In summary, Dayton has shown a generally positive trend in violent crime reduction over the past decade, despite modest population growth. The city has maintained an exceptionally low murder rate, seen decreases in robberies, and managed fluctuations in rape and aggravated assault cases. These trends, coupled with stable demographic factors, suggest that Dayton has been effective in managing public safety concerns. As the city continues to grow, maintaining these positive trends will be crucial for ensuring the ongoing safety and well-being of its residents.