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Crossett, Arkansas: Rising Violent Crime Rates Amid Population Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Crossett, located in Arkansas, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends over the past decade. With a population of 5,108 in 2022 and covering an area of 7.16 square miles, this small city has experienced fluctuations in both its population and crime rates. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes increased from 26 to 33, representing a 26.9% increase. During the same period, the population decreased from 5,809 to 5,108, a 12.1% decline.
The murder rate in the city has shown significant variability over the years. In 2010, there was 1 murder, representing 1.05% of the state's total. The city experienced several years with no murders, including 2011, 2013-2015, 2017, 2019, and 2022. However, there were spikes in 2018 and 2021, with 2 murders each year, representing 1.27% and 0.87% of the state's total, respectively. When considering the population, the murder rate per 1,000 people fluctuated from 0 to 0.39 during this period. This inconsistent pattern suggests that while murders are relatively rare in the city, they can have a significant impact on the overall crime statistics when they do occur.
Rape incidents in the city have shown a general upward trend. In 2010, there were no reported rapes, but by 2022, there were 4 cases, representing 0.25% of the state's total. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0 to 0.78 over this period. Notable spikes occurred in 2018 with 6 cases (0.41% of state total) and 2021 with 4 cases (0.26% of state total). This trend indicates a growing concern for sexual violence in the community, despite the declining population.
Robbery trends in the city have been inconsistent. In 2010, there were 4 robberies, representing 0.18% of the state's total. The number fluctuated over the years, reaching a peak of 7 in 2021 (0.59% of state total) before dropping to 0 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people varied from 0 to 1.37 during this period. This volatility suggests that while robbery is not a persistent problem, it can surge unexpectedly, potentially influenced by socioeconomic factors or specific incidents.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent violent crime in the city. In 2010, there were 21 cases, representing 0.27% of the state's total. By 2022, this number had increased to 29, accounting for 0.25% of the state's total. The rate per 1,000 people rose from 3.61 to 5.68 over this period. The highest number of cases was recorded in 2020 with 28 incidents (0.24% of state total). This upward trend in aggravated assaults, especially when considered alongside the declining population, indicates a growing issue with violent confrontations in the community.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density decreased from 811 per square mile in 2010 to 713 in 2022, the overall violent crime rate increased. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between changes in racial demographics and crime rates. The percentage of Black residents increased from 35% in 2014 to 40% in 2022, coinciding with the overall increase in violent crimes.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), the city may see a further increase in violent crimes, potentially reaching around 40-45 incidents annually. Aggravated assaults are likely to continue being the most common violent crime, potentially accounting for 70-75% of all violent incidents.
In conclusion, Crossett has experienced a concerning increase in violent crimes, particularly aggravated assaults and rapes, despite a declining population. This trend, coupled with demographic shifts and decreasing population density, suggests a need for targeted interventions and community-based strategies to address the root causes of violence and improve public safety in the coming years.
