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Collinsville, Illinois: A Decade of Divergent Violent Crime Trends
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Collinsville, located in Illinois, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends. Over the years from 2010 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in its total violent crime incidents, with 55 cases reported in both 2010 and 2022. During this period, the population saw a slight decline from 28,863 in 2010 to 27,816 in 2022, representing a 3.63% decrease.
The murder rate in the city has remained relatively low, with sporadic incidents reported. In 2010, 2012, and 2017, there was one murder each year, while other years saw no murders. When murders did occur, they represented a small percentage of state totals, ranging from 0.11% to 0.17%. The murder rate per 1,000 people remained below 0.04 throughout the period, indicating a relatively safe environment in terms of homicides.
Rape cases showed a concerning upward trend. In 2010, there were 4 reported rapes, which increased to 23 by 2022. This represents a 475% increase over the 12-year period. The rape rate per 1,000 people rose from 0.14 in 2010 to 0.83 in 2022. The city's percentage of state rape cases also increased from 0.23% in 2010 to 0.65% in 2022, indicating a growing problem relative to the state average.
Robbery incidents fluctuated but showed an overall decreasing trend. In 2010, there were 12 robberies, which decreased to 3 in 2022, a 75% reduction. The robbery rate per 1,000 people dropped from 0.42 in 2010 to 0.11 in 2022. The city's share of state robberies also decreased from 0.07% to 0.03% over this period, suggesting improved safety in this category.
Aggravated assault cases showed variability but an overall decrease. There were 38 cases in 2010, which reduced to 29 in 2022, a 23.68% decrease. However, the rate per 1,000 people remained relatively stable, changing from 1.32 in 2010 to 1.04 in 2022. The city's percentage of state aggravated assaults increased from 0.15% to 0.23%, indicating that while local numbers decreased, they did not fall as rapidly as the state average.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between changing demographics and violent crime trends. As the white population percentage decreased from 83% in 2013 to 75% in 2022, and the black population increased from 9% to 14% over the same period, there was an overall increase in violent crimes, particularly in rape cases. The Hispanic population also grew from 5% to 8% during this time.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029), we can anticipate the following: Murder rates are likely to remain low, with potentially 0-1 cases per year. Rape cases may continue to increase, potentially reaching 30-35 annual cases by 2029 if current trends persist. Robbery incidents might stabilize at around 3-5 cases per year. Aggravated assaults could fluctuate but may average around 30-35 cases annually.
In summary, Collinsville has experienced mixed trends in violent crime over the past decade. While murder and robbery rates have remained low or decreased, the significant increase in rape cases is a major concern that warrants attention. The changing demographic composition of the city appears to correlate with these shifts in crime patterns, suggesting a need for targeted community engagement and crime prevention strategies.
