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Clinton, Illinois: Property Crime Trends Amid Population Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Clinton, located in Illinois, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2014 to 2022, the city experienced significant fluctuations in its total property crime incidents, with the number decreasing from 119 in 2014 to 80 in 2022, representing a 32.8% reduction. During this same period, the population declined slightly from 8,976 to 8,725, a 2.8% decrease. This divergence between crime rates and population trends suggests complex underlying factors at play in the city's crime dynamics.
Burglary incidents in the city have shown a notable decline over the years. In 2014, there were 62 burglaries reported, which decreased to 19 in 2022, marking a 69.4% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 6.91 per 1,000 residents in 2014 to 2.18 per 1,000 in 2022. Interestingly, while the number of burglaries decreased, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated. It rose from 0.17% in 2014 to 0.30% in 2019, before dropping to 0.11% in 2022. This suggests that while the city improved its burglary situation, it did so at a faster rate than the state average in recent years.
Larceny-theft trends in the city have been more volatile. From 56 incidents in 2014, the number rose to 135 in 2018, then decreased to 59 in 2022. This represents a 5.4% increase over the entire period. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 6.24 in 2014 to 6.76 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny-theft incidents increased from 0.04% in 2014 to 0.06% in 2022, indicating that despite the recent decrease, the city's larceny-theft situation worsened relative to the state average.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has remained relatively low but variable. From 1 incident in 2014, it rose to 5 in 2019, then decreased to 2 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.11 in 2014 to 0.23 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts doubled from 0.01% in 2014 to 0.02% in 2020, before returning to 0.01% in 2022. This suggests that while motor vehicle theft remains a minor issue, it has become slightly more prevalent in recent years.
Arson cases in the city have been sporadic. There were 2 reported cases in 2014, representing 0.16% of state arsons. However, from 2018 to 2022, no arson cases were reported. This complete elimination of arson cases is a positive development for the city's safety.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $50,938 in 2013 to $56,265 in 2019, property crime rates generally decreased. However, this trend reversed slightly in recent years, with income declining to $51,905 in 2022 as property crimes continued to decrease, suggesting other factors may be at play.
Applying predictive models based on recent trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), the city may see a further reduction in overall property crime rates. Burglaries could potentially decrease to around 10-15 incidents per year, while larceny-theft might stabilize at approximately 50-55 cases annually. Motor vehicle theft is likely to remain low, possibly averaging 1-2 incidents per year. Arson cases are expected to remain at or near zero.
In summary, Clinton has shown overall improvement in its property crime situation, particularly in reducing burglaries and eliminating arson cases. However, challenges remain with larceny-theft and slight increases in motor vehicle theft rates. The city's ability to maintain lower crime rates despite recent decreases in median income is noteworthy and suggests effective local crime prevention strategies. As the city moves forward, maintaining focus on these strategies while addressing economic factors could be key to further reducing property crime rates.
