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Centre, Alabama: Small Town's Violent Crime Decline Amidst Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Centre, Alabama, is a small urban area with a population that has fluctuated over the years, reaching 6,333 residents in 2022. The city has experienced varying levels of violent crime, with total incidents ranging from a low of 3 in 2010 to a high of 25 in 2017. Over the 12-year period from 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes increased by 166.67%, while the population grew by 9.68%.
Murder rates in the city have remained exceptionally low, with only one recorded incident in 2012. This translates to a rate of 0.16 murders per 1,000 people in that year. The percentage of state murders attributable to Centre was 0.39% in 2012, the only year with a recorded murder. Given the rarity of such events, it's challenging to establish a clear trend, but it's evident that homicides are not a persistent issue in the community.
Rape incidents have fluctuated over the years, with a peak of 4 cases in both 2013 and 2020. The rate per 1,000 people reached its highest at 0.62 in 2013 and 0.68 in 2020. The city's contribution to state rape statistics has varied significantly, from 0.11% in 2011 to a striking 9.09% in 2020. This substantial increase in the percentage of state rapes warrants attention, potentially indicating a need for targeted prevention efforts or improved reporting mechanisms.
Robbery trends show sporadic occurrences, with the highest number of incidents (3) reported in 2011 and 2015. The rate per 1,000 people peaked at 0.52 in 2011. The city's share of state robberies has remained relatively low, never exceeding 0.1% of the state total. The data suggests that robbery is not a prevalent issue in the community, with several years reporting zero incidents.
Aggravated assault has been the most common violent crime in the city, with numbers ranging from 1 in 2010 to 21 in 2017. The rate per 1,000 people reached its maximum of 3.25 in 2017. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault figures has fluctuated, peaking at 0.19% in 2017 and showing a notable 4.65% in 2020. This suggests that while aggravated assault is more frequent than other violent crimes, its impact on state-level statistics varies considerably year to year.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 493 per square mile in 2010 to a peak of 580 in 2016, violent crime incidents also generally trended upward. However, this correlation is not consistent throughout the entire period, suggesting other factors may influence crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that violent crime in Centre may stabilize or slightly decrease over the next five years (up to 2029). This forecast suggests an average of 12-15 violent crimes annually, with aggravated assaults likely remaining the most common type of violent offense.
In summary, Centre has experienced fluctuations in violent crime over the past decade, with aggravated assault being the primary concern. The city's contribution to state crime statistics has been generally low, except for notable spikes in certain years, particularly for rape in 2020. While the overall violent crime rate has increased since 2010, recent years show signs of stabilization. Moving forward, local law enforcement and community leaders should focus on maintaining this stability and implementing targeted strategies to address aggravated assault and sexual violence prevention.
