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Centralia, Missouri: Violent Crime Trends in a Growing Small City
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Centralia, Missouri, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, starting at 9 in 2010 and ending at 7 in 2022, representing a 22.22% decrease. During this same period, the population grew from 5,684 in 2010 to 6,417 in 2022, an increase of 12.89%.
Regarding murder trends, the city has maintained a consistent record of zero murders from 2010 to 2022. This statistic remains unchanged despite the population growth, resulting in a murder rate of 0 per 1,000 people throughout the period. The city's contribution to the state's murder rate has consistently been 0%, indicating that Centralia has not impacted Missouri's overall murder statistics.
Rape incidents in the city have been sporadic. There were no reported cases in 2010, 2012, 2013, 2016, 2017, and 2022. The highest number of reported rapes was 2 in 2011, with single incidents reported in 2014, 2015, 2018, and 2020. The rape rate per 1,000 people ranged from 0 to 0.35 (in 2011). The city's contribution to the state's rape statistics peaked at 0.18% in 2011 but has generally remained below 0.06% in other years with reported cases.
Robbery trends show minimal occurrences. There were no reported robberies in most years, with exceptions in 2012 (2 cases), 2013 (1 case), 2017 (1 case), 2018 (1 case), and 2022 (3 cases). The robbery rate per 1,000 people ranged from 0 to 0.47 (in 2022). The city's contribution to state robbery statistics peaked at 0.1% in 2022, showing a recent uptick in this crime category.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent violent crime in the city. The number of cases ranged from a low of 4 in 2022 to a high of 13 in 2016. The aggravated assault rate per 1,000 people fluctuated between 0.62 (in 2022) and 2.20 (in 2016). The city's contribution to state aggravated assault statistics has generally remained between 0.04% and 0.08%, with the highest percentage (0.08%) in 2016 and the lowest (0.02%) in 2022.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a weak inverse relationship between population growth and violent crime rates. As the population increased over the years, the overall violent crime rate showed a slight downward trend, particularly evident in the decrease of aggravated assaults from 2016 to 2022.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can expect the following: Murder rates are likely to remain at or very close to zero, given the consistent historical trend. Rape incidents may continue to occur sporadically, with an average of 0-1 cases per year. Robbery rates might show a slight increase, potentially averaging 1-2 cases per year, based on the recent uptick in 2022. Aggravated assault cases are projected to stabilize around 5-8 incidents per year, continuing the downward trend observed in recent years.
In summary, Centralia has demonstrated a relatively stable, and in some aspects improving, violent crime landscape over the past decade. The most significant changes have been in aggravated assaults, which have shown a noticeable decrease in recent years. While robberies have seen a recent increase, the overall violent crime rate has decreased. These trends, coupled with the city's growing population, suggest that Centralia is maintaining and potentially improving its safety profile, with violent crimes representing a decreasing proportion of its expanding community.
