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Carrollton, Alabama: Steady Violent Crime Rates Amid Population Surge
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Carrollton, Alabama, a small community with a population of 3,116 as of 2022, has experienced notable fluctuations in violent crime rates over the past decade. The total number of violent crimes varied from a low of 1 incident in 2012, 2017, and 2021 to a high of 4 incidents in 2011, 2016, and 2018. This variability occurred against a backdrop of significant population growth, with the city expanding from 2,081 residents in 2010 to 3,116 in 2022, representing a 49.7% increase.
Regarding murder and nonnegligent manslaughter, the city has maintained a consistent record of zero incidents throughout the recorded period from 2010 to 2021. This stability is particularly noteworthy given the population growth, resulting in a consistently decreasing rate per 1,000 residents. The percentage of state crime for this category remained at 0% throughout, indicating that Carrollton did not contribute to Alabama's murder statistics during this time.
Similarly, rape incidents have been consistently reported as zero from 2010 to 2021. The rape rate per 1,000 residents has effectively decreased due to population growth, while the percentage of state crime for rape remained at 0% throughout the period.
Robbery trends show minimal activity, with only one reported incident in 2016. This single occurrence represented 0.03% of the state's robbery crimes that year. The robbery rate per 1,000 residents was approximately 0.35 in 2016, dropping to zero in subsequent years as no further incidents were reported.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of incidents fluctuated between 1 and 4 cases per year. Notably, there were 4 incidents in 2011 (1.84 per 1,000 residents), 4 in 2016 (1.41 per 1,000), and 4 in 2018 (1.34 per 1,000). The percentage of state crime for aggravated assault ranged from 0.01% to 0.04%, with the highest contribution in 2011. The rate per 1,000 residents generally decreased over time due to population growth, even when the number of incidents remained constant.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a weak inverse relationship between population growth and violent crime rates. As the population increased, the per capita crime rate tended to decrease, even when the absolute number of incidents remained stable or slightly increased. This suggests that the city's growth has not been accompanied by a proportional increase in violent crime.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that by 2029, Carrollton may experience a continued low incidence of murder and rape, likely remaining at or near zero. Robbery incidents may remain rare, with possibly 0-1 incidents per year. Aggravated assault cases could stabilize around 2-3 incidents annually, representing a slight decrease in the per capita rate due to projected population growth.
In summary, Carrollton has maintained relatively low violent crime rates despite significant population growth. The most notable trend is the consistency of aggravated assault as the primary form of violent crime, while other categories remain minimal or non-existent. The city's ability to maintain low crime rates during a period of substantial growth suggests effective community management and law enforcement strategies. However, continued vigilance will be necessary to ensure these positive trends persist as the community continues to evolve.
