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Carlisle's Rising Home Values and Shifting Ownership Trends: A Decade of Change in a Historic College Town
CATEGORY
Property Value
DATA
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
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Property Value
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
Carlisle, Pennsylvania, is a charming city with a rich history and a population that has steadily grown over the years, reaching 20,846 residents in 2022. This small but vibrant community has experienced notable shifts in its housing market, with fluctuations in homeownership rates and significant changes in average home and rent prices over the past decade.
The homeownership rate in Carlisle has seen a gradual decline followed by a recent uptick. In 2013, 51% of housing units were owner-occupied. This figure dropped to 45% by 2017 and remained relatively stable until 2020. However, there has been a slight increase in recent years, with the homeownership rate reaching 48% in 2022. Concurrently, average home prices have shown a consistent upward trend. In 2013, the average home price was $188,310, which grew steadily to $278,079 by 2022, representing a substantial 47.7% increase over this period.
Federal interest rates have played a significant role in shaping homeownership trends in Carlisle. The period from 2013 to 2016 saw historically low interest rates, hovering around 0.1% to 0.4%. Despite these favorable borrowing conditions, homeownership rates declined during this time, suggesting that other local factors were influencing the housing market. As interest rates began to rise from 2017 onwards, reaching 1.68% in 2022, the homeownership rate in Carlisle stabilized and even showed a slight increase, indicating a complex relationship between interest rates and local housing dynamics.
Renter occupancy in Carlisle has followed an inverse trend to homeownership. The percentage of renter-occupied units increased from 49% in 2013 to a peak of 55% in 2017 and 2019. This trend has slightly reversed in recent years, with renter occupancy at 52% in 2022. Average rent prices have fluctuated over this period. In 2013, the average rent was $952, which increased to $989 by 2017. After some fluctuations, including a drop to $950 in 2019, average rent prices rose significantly to $1,082 in 2021 before decreasing to $990 in 2022. These changes in rent prices and occupancy rates may be influenced by the growing population, which increased from 18,814 in 2013 to 20,846 in 2022, potentially affecting housing demand and availability.
In 2023 and 2024, Carlisle has experienced continued growth in average home prices. The average home price reached $294,790 in 2023 and further increased to $306,113 in 2024, representing a 10.1% rise over two years. This growth occurred despite a significant increase in federal interest rates, which rose to 5.02% in 2023 and 5.33% in 2024, potentially impacting borrowing costs for potential homebuyers.
Looking ahead, predictive models suggest that both average home prices and rent prices in Carlisle are likely to continue their upward trajectory over the next five years. Home prices are projected to increase by approximately 3-5% annually, potentially reaching around $355,000 by 2029. Average rent prices are expected to grow at a slightly slower pace, with an estimated annual increase of 2-4%, potentially reaching about $1,150 per month by 2029.
In summary, Carlisle has experienced a shifting housing landscape characterized by fluctuating homeownership rates, steadily increasing average home prices, and variable rent prices. The recent uptick in homeownership, despite rising interest rates, suggests a resilient local housing market. The projected continued growth in both home and rent prices indicates ongoing demand for housing in this growing community, presenting both opportunities and challenges for residents and policymakers in the coming years.
