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Carefree, Arizona: Soaring Home Values and Ownership Rates in a Resilient Real Estate Market
CATEGORY
Property Value
DATA
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
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Property Value
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
Carefree, Arizona, is a unique desert oasis located in Maricopa County. This small community, covering just 8.81 square miles, has experienced significant changes in its housing market over the past decade. The town has maintained a high rate of homeownership, with average home prices showing a strong upward trend. Meanwhile, average rent prices have also increased, though the percentage of renters has remained relatively low.
Homeownership in Carefree has been consistently high, ranging from 87% to 94% between 2013 and 2022. This trend correlates with the substantial increase in average home prices, which rose from $504,860 in 2010 to $1,222,848 in 2022, representing a remarkable 142% increase. The year 2021 saw a particularly significant jump in average home prices, rising from $789,542 in 2020 to $994,404, a 26% increase in just one year. This sharp rise coincided with a boost in homeownership from 92% in 2020 to 94% in 2021, suggesting that despite rising prices, Carefree residents continued to prioritize homeownership.
The federal interest rates have played a role in shaping homeownership trends in Carefree. From 2010 to 2021, interest rates remained historically low, ranging from 0.08% to 2.16%. This period of low interest rates coincided with the town's consistently high homeownership rates, as favorable financing conditions made purchasing homes more accessible. The slight dip in homeownership to 87% in 2016 and 2018 occurred when interest rates began to rise, reaching 1.83% by 2018. However, the subsequent drop in interest rates to 0.38% in 2020 and 0.08% in 2021 corresponded with homeownership rates rebounding to 92% and 94%, respectively.
Renter percentages in Carefree have remained low, fluctuating between 6% and 13% from 2013 to 2022. Despite this small renter population, average rent prices have shown a consistent upward trend. In 2013, the average rent was $1,645, which increased to $2,243 by 2022, representing a 36% rise. The peak in average rent was observed in 2017 at $2,258, coinciding with a slight increase in the renter population to 12%. Interestingly, as the town's population grew from 6,609 in 2013 to 7,933 in 2022, the percentage of renters decreased from 9% to 6%, suggesting a preference for homeownership even as the community expanded.
Looking at the most recent data, average home prices in Carefree reached $1,210,858 in 2023 and further increased to $1,261,656 in 2024. This represents a 4.2% increase from 2023 to 2024, indicating continued growth in the housing market. Concurrently, federal interest rates rose to 5.02% in 2023 and 5.33% in 2024, marking a significant increase from the low rates seen in previous years. Despite these higher interest rates, the rising home prices suggest ongoing demand for housing in Carefree.
Applying predictive models to forecast 5-year trends, we anticipate that average home prices in Carefree will continue to rise, potentially reaching around $1.5 million by 2029. This projection is based on the historical growth rate and assumes continued demand for housing in the area. Average rent prices are also expected to increase, potentially surpassing $2,500 per month within the next five years, following the established upward trend.
In summary, Carefree has demonstrated a robust housing market characterized by high homeownership rates and steadily increasing average home and rent prices. The community has shown resilience in maintaining high homeownership levels despite rising prices and fluctuating interest rates. As the town continues to grow, it is likely to see further appreciation in property values and rental costs, making it an attractive location for both homeowners and investors.
