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Cardwell, Montana: Rising Home Values and Shifting Ownership in a Rural Community
CATEGORY
Property Value
DATA
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
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Property Value
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
Cardwell, Montana, is a small community that has experienced significant demographic changes over the past decade. This rural settlement has seen fluctuations in its homeownership rates and housing market, reflecting broader economic trends and local developments. The city has generally maintained a high rate of homeownership, though this has been gradually declining in recent years, while average home prices have shown a strong upward trajectory.
The relationship between homeownership rates and average home prices in Cardwell presents an interesting dynamic. In 2016, when homeownership was at 80%, the average home price was $258,375. As home prices steadily increased, reaching $320,516 in 2019, homeownership rose slightly to 88%. However, a reversal occurred from 2020 onwards. Despite average home prices surging to $453,827 in 2021 and $564,999 in 2022, homeownership rates declined sharply to 77% and 73% respectively. This inverse relationship suggests that rising home prices may be making homeownership less attainable for some residents.
Federal interest rates have played a significant role in shaping homeownership trends in Cardwell. The period from 2016 to 2019 saw relatively low interest rates, ranging from 0.4% to 2.16%, which coincided with stable or increasing homeownership rates. However, the sharp increase in interest rates to 1.68% in 2022 and 5.02% in 2023 aligns with the notable decline in homeownership, dropping from 82% in 2020 to 73% in 2022. This trend underscores how higher interest rates can deter potential homebuyers due to increased borrowing costs.
The renter population in Cardwell has shown an inverse relationship to homeownership trends. As the percentage of renters increased from 12% in 2019 to 27% in 2022, average rent prices fluctuated. Rent prices decreased from $730 in 2018 to $682 in 2017, but then rose significantly to $904 in 2021, before slightly decreasing to $858 in 2022. This upward trend in rent prices, coupled with the increasing renter population, suggests growing demand for rental properties in the area, possibly due to the challenges of homeownership in a rising price market.
In 2023 and 2024, Cardwell's housing market continued its upward trajectory, albeit at a slower pace. The average home price in 2023 was $566,112, a slight increase from 2022. In 2024, the average home price rose to $593,200. Concurrently, interest rates remained high, reaching 5.33% in 2024, potentially influencing buying decisions and market dynamics.
Looking ahead, predictive models suggest that average home prices in Cardwell may continue to rise over the next five years, but at a more moderate pace. Given the recent slowdown in price appreciation, we might expect average home prices to reach around $650,000 to $700,000 by 2029. Rent prices are likely to follow a similar trend, potentially increasing to an average of $950 to $1,000 per month in the same timeframe, reflecting the growing demand for rental properties.
In summary, Cardwell has experienced a significant shift in its housing landscape. The most striking trends include the sharp rise in average home prices, particularly from 2020 to 2022, coupled with a decline in homeownership rates. The increase in the renter population and rising rent prices suggest a growing preference or necessity for renting. These trends, influenced by factors such as rising home prices and higher interest rates, paint a picture of a changing housing market in this Montana community.
