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Carbondale's Violent Crime Trends: A Decade of Fluctuations Amid Population Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Carbondale, located in Pennsylvania, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2018, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, starting at 14 in 2010, peaking at 16 in 2012, and ending at 14 in 2018. This represents no overall change in the number of violent crimes during this period. Interestingly, this occurred against a backdrop of population decline, with the city's population decreasing from 9,002 in 2010 to 8,565 in 2018, a 4.9% reduction.
The murder rate in the city has remained remarkably low, with only one recorded murder in 2017 throughout the entire period from 2010 to 2018. This single incident represented 0.19% of the state's murders that year. Given the city's population of 8,625 in 2017, this translates to a murder rate of 0.12 per 1,000 residents. The consistently low murder rate, despite population fluctuations, suggests a generally safe environment in terms of homicides.
Rape incidents showed more variability. There were no reported rapes in 2010 and 2012, but the numbers fluctuated in other years, reaching a peak of 6 cases in 2018. This peak represented 0.31% of the state's total rapes that year. With a population of 8,565 in 2018, the rape rate was 0.70 per 1,000 residents. The increase in reported rapes, particularly the sharp rise in 2018, could indicate either an actual increase in incidents or improved reporting mechanisms.
Robbery trends showed some fluctuation but remained relatively low. The number of robberies ranged from a low of 1 in 2011 and 2016 to a high of 4 in 2013 and 2018. In 2018, robberies accounted for 0.05% of the state's total. With 4 robberies and a population of 8,565 in 2018, the robbery rate was 0.47 per 1,000 residents. The consistent presence of robberies, albeit in small numbers, suggests an ongoing issue that merits attention from local law enforcement.
Aggravated assault cases showed a general downward trend. From a high of 13 cases in 2012, the number decreased to 4 cases in 2018. This reduction is particularly noteworthy given the overall population decline. In 2018, aggravated assaults in the city represented 0.03% of the state's total. With 4 cases and a population of 8,565, the 2018 rate was 0.47 per 1,000 residents. This decline in aggravated assaults could be indicative of successful crime prevention strategies or changing social dynamics within the community.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a notable relationship between the city's racial composition and violent crime trends. As the white population percentage decreased from 93% in 2015 to 84% in 2022, there was a corresponding increase in violent crimes, particularly in rape and robbery cases. Additionally, the rise in median rent from $485 in 2015 to $757 in 2022 coincided with these changes, potentially indicating socioeconomic factors influencing crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a potential increase in overall violent crimes. Based on the trends observed, particularly the recent uptick in rapes and robberies, the city may see these categories continue to rise moderately. However, aggravated assaults are expected to remain stable or potentially decrease further if current trends persist.
In summary, Carbondale has experienced a complex evolution in its violent crime landscape. While murders remain exceptionally rare, the increase in rapes and the persistent presence of robberies present challenges for the community. The decline in aggravated assaults is a positive development, but it's offset by increases in other categories. The changing demographic composition and rising housing costs appear to correlate with these crime trends, suggesting that broader socioeconomic factors may be influencing the city's safety profile. As Carbondale moves forward, addressing these emerging crime patterns while maintaining its low homicide rate will be crucial for ensuring the overall safety and well-being of its residents.
