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Carbondale's Declining Property Crime: A Decade of Improvement in Pennsylvania
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Carbondale, located in Pennsylvania, has experienced significant changes in its property crime landscape over the past decade. From 2010 to 2018, the total number of property crimes decreased by 51.85%, from 135 to 65 incidents. During this same period, the population declined by 4.86%, from 9,002 to 8,565 residents. This disproportionate decrease in property crimes relative to population change suggests an improving safety situation in the city.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable downward trend. In 2010, there were 39 burglaries, which decreased to 8 in 2018, representing a 79.49% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 4.33 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 0.93 per 1,000 in 2018. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, starting at 0.15% in 2010, peaking at 0.19% in 2013, and then dropping to 0.06% by 2018. This significant decrease in burglaries, both in absolute numbers and as a proportion of state crime, indicates improved home and business security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies.
Larceny-theft incidents also decreased over time, though less dramatically than burglaries. The number of larceny-thefts dropped from 87 in 2010 to 55 in 2018, a 36.78% decrease. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 9.66 in 2010 to 6.42 in 2018. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft crimes remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.09% and 0.15% during the period. This trend suggests that while petty theft remains a concern, it has become less prevalent over time.
Motor vehicle theft in the city saw a significant reduction, from 9 incidents in 2010 to just 2 in 2018, a 77.78% decrease. The rate per 1,000 people fell from 1.00 in 2010 to 0.23 in 2018. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.08% in 2010 to 0.02% in 2018. This substantial decrease could be attributed to improved vehicle security systems, increased community vigilance, or targeted law enforcement efforts.
Arson cases in Carbondale were relatively rare, with only 2 incidents reported in 2010 and 1 in 2018. The rate per 1,000 people decreased slightly from 0.22 in 2010 to 0.12 in 2018. Interestingly, despite the low numbers, the city's contribution to state arson cases increased from 0.33% in 2010 to 0.12% in 2018, suggesting a larger decrease in arson cases statewide.
A strong correlation exists between the declining property crime rates and the city's decreasing population density. As the population density dropped from 2,775 per square mile in 2010 to 2,641 in 2018, property crimes saw a corresponding decrease. This relationship suggests that the lower population density may have contributed to reduced opportunities for property crimes.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, it's estimated that by 2029, Carbondale could see a further reduction in property crimes by approximately 30-35% compared to 2018 levels, assuming current trends and interventions continue. This projection would place the total number of property crimes at around 42-45 incidents annually.
In summary, Carbondale has demonstrated a significant improvement in its property crime situation over the past decade. The substantial decreases in burglaries and motor vehicle thefts, coupled with moderate reductions in larceny-thefts, paint a picture of a safer community. The correlation between declining population density and reduced crime rates suggests that urban planning and community dynamics play a role in crime prevention. As the city moves forward, maintaining and building upon these positive trends will be crucial for ensuring the continued safety and well-being of its residents.
