Loading Content...
Carbon Hill's Property Crime Decline: A Decade of Change in Alabama
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Carbon Hill, located in Alabama, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated significantly, peaking at 139 in 2012 and dropping to 36 in 2022, marking a 74.1% decrease over this period. Concurrently, the population declined from 5,257 in 2010 to 4,054 in 2022, a 22.9% decrease, adding complexity to the crime rate analysis.
Burglary rates in the city have shown considerable volatility. In 2010, there were 6 burglaries, which increased to 30 in 2013, before declining to 7 in 2022. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents peaked at 5.64 in 2013 and fell to 1.73 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, reaching a high of 0.11% in 2013 and settling at 0.06% in 2022. This trend suggests improved local security measures or changing criminal patterns over time.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, exhibited similar fluctuations. From 25 incidents in 2010, it rose sharply to 108 in 2012, before decreasing to 26 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents peaked at 20 in 2012 and dropped to 6.41 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft cases varied, reaching a maximum of 0.13% in 2012 and declining to 0.06% in 2022. This trend may reflect improved community vigilance or economic factors influencing theft rates.
Motor vehicle theft showed less dramatic but still notable changes. From 4 incidents in 2010, it increased to 14 in 2011, then gradually decreased to 3 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents peaked at 2.69 in 2011 and fell to 0.74 in 2022. Interestingly, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts was highest at 0.19% in 2013 and 2015, dropping to 0.04% in 2022. This could indicate improved vehicle security or a shift in criminal focus away from automobile theft in the area.
Arson data for the city is largely unavailable, with only two years reporting: zero incidents in both 2011 and 2022. This lack of data makes it difficult to draw meaningful conclusions about arson trends in the city.
Examining correlations between crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The decline in property crimes from 2012 to 2022 coincides with a decrease in population density from 979 per square mile to 735. Additionally, there's a noticeable correlation between the gradual increase in median income (from $32,999 in 2013 to $35,390 in 2022) and the overall decrease in property crimes. The percentage of owner-occupied housing remained relatively stable around 77-80% during this period, which may have contributed to community stability and lower crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, we can forecast that property crime rates in Carbon Hill are likely to continue their downward trajectory over the next five years, potentially reaching around 25-30 incidents annually by 2029. This projection assumes the continuation of current demographic and economic trends.
In summary, Carbon Hill has experienced a significant overall reduction in property crimes from 2010 to 2022, despite fluctuations in specific crime categories. This trend, coupled with demographic changes and economic improvements, suggests a positive direction for community safety. However, the concurrent population decline adds complexity to this narrative, highlighting the need for continued vigilance and adaptive strategies to maintain and improve public safety in the face of changing urban dynamics.
