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Cape Carteret's Property Crime Trends: Population Growth and Declining Burglaries
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Cape Carteret, located in North Carolina, has experienced fluctuating property crime rates over the past decade, alongside notable population growth. From 2010 to 2021, the total number of property crimes in the city varied, reaching a peak of 42 in 2012 and dropping to 20 in 2020, representing a 52.4% decrease over this period. Concurrently, the population grew from 1,714 in 2010 to 2,092 in 2021, marking a 22% increase.
Burglary trends in the city have shown a general decline over time. In 2010, there were 7 burglaries reported, which decreased to 5 by 2021. This represents a 28.6% reduction in burglary incidents. When considering population growth, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 4.08 in 2010 to 2.39 in 2021. The city's share of state burglaries remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.01% and 0.02% throughout the period. This downward trend in burglaries, despite population growth, suggests improved security measures or changes in local crime patterns.
Larceny-theft incidents have shown more variability but with an overall increasing trend. In 2010, there were 13 reported cases, which rose to 16 by 2021, marking a 23.1% increase. However, when adjusted for population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents actually decreased slightly from 7.58 in 2010 to 7.65 in 2021. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft incidents remained low, ranging between 0.01% and 0.03%. This suggests that while the absolute number of larceny-thefts increased, it remained proportional to population growth.
Motor vehicle theft in the area has remained relatively low, with some fluctuations. From zero reported cases in 2010, it peaked at 3 in 2011, and then stabilized at 1 incident per year from 2019 to 2021. The rate per 1,000 residents in 2021 was 0.48, compared to 0 in 2010. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts has consistently been minimal, ranging from 0% to 0.03%. These low numbers indicate that motor vehicle theft is not a significant concern for the community.
Arson incidents have been rare in the city. The only reported cases were in 2014, with 2 incidents, representing 0.22% of state arson cases that year. This translates to a rate of 1.12 arsons per 1,000 residents in 2014. The absence of arson cases in other years suggests that this was an isolated occurrence rather than a persistent issue.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $58,011 in 2013 to $77,406 in 2019, property crime incidents generally decreased. However, this correlation weakened in recent years as income levels slightly declined while crime rates remained relatively stable.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a slight increase in overall property crime incidents. Based on historical patterns and recent stabilization, projections suggest an average of 25-30 property crimes annually by 2029. This modest increase aligns with the expected continued population growth but assumes no significant changes in socioeconomic factors or law enforcement strategies.
In summary, Cape Carteret has demonstrated resilience in managing property crime rates despite significant population growth. The most notable trends include a decrease in burglaries, a slight increase in larceny-thefts proportional to population growth, and consistently low rates of motor vehicle theft and arson. These trends, coupled with the correlation between rising incomes and decreasing crime rates, suggest a generally positive outlook for community safety. However, the projected slight increase in property crimes underscores the need for continued vigilance and adaptive crime prevention strategies as the town continues to grow.
